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Latest Blog Posts

Allsvenskan Correct Score Model

The statistical model I have built for the Swedish top flight is currently up 11.14 units from 109 picks this season. Last weekend was poor (-4.2 units), but the ROI still stands at 9.3%. I thought I'd try and show some other things it can do by showing the correct score odds it generates (this also shows how the CS market rarely offers good value)
Gefle v Halmstad: 1-0/0-1
Model really can't decide here, pricing 1-0 either way exactly to the same (8.64).
Kalmar v Malmo: 1...

Hopes and Expectations

England flopped at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. This was the worst World Cup campaign since they failed to qualify for USA ’94, and the poorest World Cup Finals showing since their 1958 campaign where they drew all three group games and lost out to the Soviet Union in a play-off. On paper, it was clear that the Group D wasn’t the easiest to get out of, with both Italy and Uruguay looking like tough games. Costa Rica were underestimated too (in hindsight), by all three teams, and arg...

Introducting the Swedish Allsvenskan

After a decent few weeks, I've been experimenting in a few smaller leagues using similar methods to those I've been using in the bigger European competitions. Using poisson distribution and some supremacy stats, I've managed to transfer my model to the Swedish Allsvenskan, and 9 games in to the season it has provided some decent returns. 
On the 1x2 (home/draw/away) market, It has provided a return of 3.77 units (5.2% ROI). Most shrewd punters will know that the 1x2 market ...

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