Last tips before Christmas! Don’t worry though, I’ll be working on tips for Boxing Day whilst drinking mulled wine after my Turkey… there will be an email out early on boxing day.
Utrecht v Ajax (11:30am)
There is only one way this game should go (in theory). However, the home side would like to think they can get something from this tie and with 3 wins in their last 4 home games, they have a decent chance. Ajax have now won their last 6 in the league though, so will provide stiff competition. There have been 23 goals in their last 6 games (Ajax), and they have seen 62 in the league this season (3.65/game, 4.00/game on the road). Utrecht have seen far fewer (43 – 2.53/game). As mentioned before, research suggests the favourite’s form is more likely to continue and take precedence. Ajax average one goal per 3.76 shot on target, and score 2.47 goals per game. Utrecht have a worse ratio, needed over 5 shots on target to get a goal – on average. Goals market offer great value here. Ajax are scoring freely and have seen both sides score in their last 10 away games. Don’t be surprised to see both sides get 2+ goals.
Feyenoord v Groningen (1:30pm)
Another Dutch tip, and another goals tip. Feyenoord have scored in their last 19 league home fixtures, They have scored 2+ in their last 7 games (averaging 3.14/game). They aren’t the best defensively either, and have conceded 2+ in 3 of their last 5 at home. Groningen have failed to score in their last 3 games, and have conceded 12 against the top 4 already this season. With Feyenoord in 5th, another 3+ home goals looks extremely likely although isn’t the best value at 2.30 (Coral). With them also likely to concede, our tip looks at least as likely to come in, and gives better value for money… Possession will be with the home side for the majority, and I expect them to create a lotof chances, but Groningen average more shots on target than 2nd placed Twente, so an away goal is on the cards.
Chelsea v Aston Villa (4:00pm)
After their brief absence from the Premier League, Chelsea come back to an almost ideal game. Home against a weak side, and on the back of their comfortable win at Elland Road, they will be looking for a convincing win to ensure they go in to Christmas day in third place. After losing 5-0 at Man City a few games ago, Villa have conceded just twice in their last 5 EPL fixtures. This is a decent improvement, but came against sides who have notably struggled in front of goal. To highlight this, they have played Stoke and Reading in that time, the two sides with lowest average shots on target per game. They have had more difficulty on the road, already losing by more than one goal on three occasions this season. There is excellent value on the Asian Handicap market here. 2-0, 3-0, 3-1 for the CS market…
Marseille v Saint Etienne (8:00pm)
Based on current form for these two sides, I’m surprised of the odds available… St Etienne are unbeaten in 7 league games on the road, whereas Marseille have managed just one home win in the last 5 league games. Marseille have conceded 11 goals in their last 5 at home, and have seen PSG and Lyon catch up with them after their impressive start of 6 straight wins. A low scoring game is on the cards, as the away side haven’t scored in 4. Why back them? They’ve kept 5 clean sheets in 9 and have scored 2+ on 7 occasions this season. With a dodgy Marseille back line, 2+ away goals aren’t out of the question…
Terry’s Football Tips
Utrecht v Ajax – Over 3.5 Goals (2.62 – Paddy Power)
Feyenoord v Groningen – Over 3.5 Goals (2.50 – Paddy Power)
Chelsea v Aston Villa – Chelsea -1.50 (2.00 – Bet 365)
Marseille v St Etienne – St Etienne +0.50 (2.05 – Bet 365)