Finally! Some real football is back after a good few days with nothing worth looking at. One game of focus this evening. Originally had looked at PSG on the Asian Handicap but had to go to -2.00 to get EVENS, so decided to leave it out as there wasn’t any real value in that game. Instead, I’ve got two tips from the other Ligue One game. There are a few for tomorrow too, they will be on tonight (or tomorrow morning)
St Etienne v Toulouse (6:00pm)
It is not often that you see such strong trends from two sides. Amazingly, in their last 8 home games, St Etienne have not seen a BTTS (Both teams to score) come in AND in Toulouse’s last 8 away, they have seen the same: no BTTS. However, the odds for a BTTS is only 2.10 (Boylesports), implying there is a 47.6% chance of a return. Previous results show the odds should be much higher. I’d estimate about a 35% chance (odds would therefore be around 2.86). Odds therefore for BTTS NO should be at about 1.54, and is where the value lies.
Toulouse have now lost their last four on the road without scoring, losing 1-0 on three occasions. Saint Etienne have failed to score at home in 4 of their last 8 at the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, but have managed 5 clean sheet in that time. They can certainly score, but their defensive strength at home has helped their league position, and is their focus. With Toulouse low scoring on the road (barring the 4-0 win at relegation candidates Evian), and a strong home defence, a home clean sheet is likely. With this in mind, I strongly feel that there is value to be had in the goals market. It is a value bet, where the odds are higher than they should be. Fancy a cheeky punt on a correct score? 1-0 home win looks most likely.
Terry’s Football Tips
St Etienne v Toulouse – Both Teams to Score NO (1.86 – Betfair)
St Etienne v Toulouse – Under 1.5 Goals (2.88 – Betfair) – Take under 2.5 at 1.64 if less confident