After profit Saturday & Sunday, I am 4-0 since Tuesday began and we’re back with more underdogs tonight! Going back to Saturday night, I’m 7-3 over the last 4 days and tonight we’ll be looking to extend that run when taking a underdog team on the plus points that has done it a few times for us already, and most notably on Sunday against the struggling LA Lakers. Odds in this post are as of 19.27pm, today.
ANOTHER BIG Underdog play: Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat
WE ARE NOW 7/7 WITH +UNDERDOGS! After last nights big +1 Oklahoma win against the Clippers, we’re on the underdog trail again. What can you say about the Miami Heat? They’re the defending Champions and they have scary talent. The trio of Bosh, James and Wade is just a lethal attack that has slayed so many teams over the last couple of years. Right now however the Heat are very up and down. The playoffs are a certainty for this side and it almost looks like they’ve taken their foot off the gas, perhaps willingly, very often in the past month. As the Heat do you can guarantee they’re going to show up in those big games against the likes of the Lakers, the Thunder, etc, but they’ve been slipping up far too often against lesser teams and despite being at home I don’t see what motivation they have to blow out the Raptors. The Heat haven’t played since last Thursday – that’s 6 whole days off. And although it’s a long rest, is it too long? The Raptors played on Sunday and have had three full days off to practice and travel, which is a nice little rest whether the focus will have been on the Heat game the whole time. The rest also helps as I don’t think the Raptors will be looking ahead to tomorrow nights game with the Magic, which is clearly more winnable. However, the factor in this game for me are the spread records for both sides. Toronto recently lost 4 in a row, but that run came after winning 10 of their last 13. We also know they beat the Lakers on Sunday. It’s been 20 games since this team has lost by 13 points or more, and they always keep it tight. They’re a young and confident bunch and although they have no stars but I think they can cover yet again tonight with a big number.
Toronto Raptors +10.5 @ 1.95 with Matchbook
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors
As much as it can potentially be seen as a ‘let down spot’ after a big win by the Thunder against the Clippers last night, I think this is by far the best team in the NBA and they’ll have every reason to be confident tonight. They’ll be playing with that confidence and it’s amazing what that can do for a side, and I’m not too worried this is the second night of a back to back for them because they’re being asked to cover a fairly low spread given their offensive talent. Last night was just the Kevin Durant show during the 4th quarter. A monster 4th quarter from him really secured the win for the Thunder. Oklahoma haven’t lost to this team in two years and I can’t really ignore this bet. It’s been a rare occasion when the Thunder haven’t covered any and all spreads against this side in recent seasons. Despite the threat the Warriors posses at home, they actually play a fairly slow brand of Basketball. They don’t have the best fast break, they aren’t going to attack you like the Rockets, they’re going to try and play their way. And their way isn’t that fast, so I don’t think the Thunder will get tired out at any point tonight. I’m a little confused by the small -2 line for that reason. So, there is your value.
Oklahoma City Thunder -2 @ 2.01 with Matchbook
LA Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies
Once again we’re tackling a Lakers game and guess what? Once again, we certainly won’t be backing them. It’s become a habit to go against this side and right now I’m seeing even the best of bettors do it for the pure sake of opposing what isn’t a great team right now. Regardless of chance, stats, analysis, etc, we all know right now that the Lakers are more often than not going to find a way to screw it up for themselves. And tonight they probably will, again, but in fairness this may be a game you’d expect the Lakers to drop regardless of form. After struggling to score against the Bulls and being blown away, this Lakers team will come up against an even better defense in the Grizzlies that might not even allow them to score as many as 80 points. They managed 83 against the Bulls and that total was pretty much around what I expected and hoped for to ensure we had a win on the Bulls there, and tonight I would not be surprised to see the Lakers post one of their lower totals of the season. The spread is ridiculously out of line. Grizzlies at home and only a -4 favorite against this disjointed Lakers side doesn’t seem right to me. I’d double that in reality, but the entire blind betting public insist on backing the name the ‘LA Lakers’ with out any real thought process or knowledge? Well, that’s fine by me. It gives value. So let’s fade the public yet again, and go cash against this Lakers side – YET AGAIN!
Memphis Grizzles -4 @ 2.02 with Matchbook
(Updated: Apologies for putting Grizzlies -2. The same odds as the Thunder bet had me thinking -2! The correct line is -4)