No Premier League this weekend, and as you should know by now, I won’t be providing tips on any cup matches… That means England is out of bounds this weekend, but with the other European leagues in full force I still have some football tips for you…
Monchengladbach v Dusseldorf (2:30pm)
After a pretty woeful performance last weekend, Dusseldorf now travel to an imposing Monchengladbach side Who have won their last 2 hoe games 2-0. Not only that, but their last two away games have been 1-1 draws at league leaders Bayern and Schalke. They are a tough team to beat. With three clean sheets in their last 5 home games, and with Dusseldorf low on goals on the road (8 this season), another clean sheet is highly probable. Expect Monchengladbach to have 55+% possession as they will try to control the game from the off, and Dusseldorf are often wasteful in possession. With goals from all over, I expect problems from the off for the away side, and a third 2-0 home win for the home side would be my correct score prediction.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hoffenheim (2:30pm)
In my opinion, this is my star value bet of the day. I’m truly shocked at the odds as 4th place hosts 16th. Hoffenheim boast the worst defence in the Bundesliga, conceding 41 in 18 goals (19 in 8 away from home). Frankfurt have the second highest goal tally at home too; with 23 goals in 9 games. Combining these two stats and you can see which way my tip is heading already. Alex Meier has been on fire for them this season, with 12 goals in just 18 appearances, and with goals from out wide too (Inui and Aigner), they have the potential to absolutely run riot here today. However, they aren’t the strongest defensively, and Hoffenheim average over a goal a game, so BTTS should come in, as should over 3.5 and over 1.5 home goals. I genuinely expected to have to go above -1.00 on the Asian handicap to get near evens for this game, hence the HUGE value in my tip below. Correct score prediction here is 3-1.
Celta Vigo v Real Sociedad (3pm)
With just one win in their last 5 at home, and 2 wins in 13 league games, Celta are sitting just outside the relegation zone. Real Sociedad are rightfully in the top half of the table, and three points today could see them as high as 6th. With 1 defeat in 10 league games (4-3 at Real Madrid), they are one of the form sides of the league, and with 12 goals in their last 5 away games, they have a lot to offer going forward. Celta have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 games in La Liga, and won just one of their last 5 at home. Despite a good start to their home form after their promotion, they are now struggling to break teams down. With plenty of players capable of goals, Sociedad are the most likely to get something out of this game. Based on my tip, a point will do, but I think they are capable of all three here. Correct score prediction: 1-2.
Lazio v Chievo (5pm)
Having won 9/11 at home already this season, their home form is keeping Lazio in touch with the other high flyers in the league. Without a defeat in 10 Serie A games, welcoming a poor Chievo side should be no problem. The visitors have lost 8/10 on the road this season, and have also conceded the most when on the road (24). Combine that with Lazio’s average of 2 goals per game at home and you can see why this should be a one sided affair. Chievo’s last away game was a 4-0 defeat at 14th placed Bologna, and they have conceded 2+ in 7 of their 10 on the road this season. A strong home side against a weak away side, yet there is good value in the Asian Handicap market. 3-0 home win.
Freiburg v Leverkusen (5pm)
Another no-brainer from the Bundesliga here, great value and I’ve also added the option to cover ourselves should it not go fully according to plan. Freiburg are doing better than expected this season and sit in 6th place. However, their home from, despite being quite strong, has a trend worth noting. They have won 4 this season at the Mage Solar Stadion, but against 10th, 15th, 16th and 18th. Against sides above them, they have lost 2-0 on both occasions. Against the stronger sides with attacking strength, they prove no match. Leverkusen are strong going forward. The Schurrle/Kießling partnership has been lethal at times, and has already helped them beat Bayern on the road this season. Add in Gonzalo Castro and you have a formidable three pronged attack. To get the odds on this tip, with added insurance should it not go to plan is a great bet.
Nancy v Lorient (7pm)
Nancy are rock bottom of Ligue 1, and rightly so. Without a clean sheet or victory in their last 10 at home, I am very surprised to see them favourites for all three points at 2.88. No value there at all in my opinion. It is even more surprising when you see that Lorient have won 5 of their last 7 league games. Of their 6 wins in their last 9 league games, 5 have been without conceding. Nancy have actually drawn 4 in a row at home coming in to this fixture, but without a home win since there opening day of the season, they are un-backable. I expect Lorient, with a more potent strike force, to get the first goal (more than likely before half time) and be able to hold on thereafter, possible increasing their lead. I’d predict a 2-0 away win, but that value in the market means any win will do, but we’ll still be covered on the draw.
Juventus v Genoa (7:45pm)
Not often do I like using the Asian Handicap market to this extent, unless there is a lot of value to be had. With Juventus being such a strong side; and coming up against a poor side under a new manager, I had to make an exception. Juventus have won 8 at home this season, 7 of which have been by 2 or more goals. Their last home win was at the expense of Udinese (4-0), who are a side that are far stronger than Genoa. In 10 away games this season, Genoa have failed to score 4 times, and scored more than 1 just once (3-2 defeat at Catania). Bearing in mind the strength of Juventus, and the fact they will no doubt control the game throughout, seeing anything stray away from the norm is extremely unlikely. With the full goal Asian Handicap, we have some insurance should Juve not dominate quite as expected, but with a clean sheet seeming very likely, at worst I believe this stake will be returned. To get evens on this bet is good value for money.
Terry’s Football Tips
Monchengladbach v Dusseldorf – Monchengladbach -0.75 (1.99 – Betfair)
Frankfurt v Hoffenheim – Frankfurt Win (2.00 – Bet Victor)
Celta Vigo v Sociedad – Sociedad +0.25 (1.97 – Betfair)
Lazio v Chievo – Lazio -1.00 (2.10 – Bet365)
Freiburg v Leverkusen – Leverkusen +0.00 (1.92 – Bet365)
Nancy v Lorient – Lorient +0.00 (2.08 – Betfair)
Juventus v Genoa – Juventus -2.00 (2.00 – Bet365)