Sundays bets are mainly from the Paulista championship where we have some fantastic fixtures and hopefully some fantastic winners.
Palmeiras vs Penapolense (7pm)
Four points from a possible six in the opening stages is a very steady return for second division Palmeiras who some thought might struggle at the start of the championship with a so called hang over from relegation. Pal will be expecting to win this game and I agree with it as I think they’ll have far too much for a poor Penapolense side. Penapolense have just one point less than Pal although that came with a victory against one of the leagues poorest sides Ituano. Argentina international Hernan Barcos should get another 90 minutes and I expect him to grab at least one goal during the game.
Bragantino vs Santos (9:30pm)
This is my 5 star value bet of the weekend, It may seem that I’m tipping a Santos win in some form every week but they’ve not let me down yet and the constant strength of the Santos team selection in the competition. I fully expect Santos to win their fourth straight Paulista title which would set a record which is why they will constant field full strength sides. Montillio is slowing starting to improve his link up with Neymar and as soon as it preoperly clicks between the Santos No.10 & 11 then sides will struggle to cope. I’ve watched both of Bragantino’s games and I don’t think they have to defensive capability to deal with the pace of Neymar and Andre. Arouca will play a key role in this game breaking up any Bragantino attacks and feeding it to Montillo to start the next Santos attack. I just cannot see anything but a Santos win here.
Flamengo v Volta Redonda (7:00pm)
Here we are again, for those of you that have took my Brazilian bets from day one with Team Terry then you’ll probably know where this is heading. I like Volta Redonda because they’re defensively resilient especially on set pieces where everyone knows their individual jobs. Flamengo are the big dogs in this competition and along with Fluminense and Vasco are expected to challenge for the title but with no out and out striker they will struggle. Fla have just signed Rubin Kazan midfielder Carlos Eduardo who I really like as an attacking threat, but for the sake of this bet he won’t make to much of an impact mainly because if he is given a starting opportunity he won’t have the match fitness to keep up with the pace of the game having not played for almost 2 months. Once again I think Fla will win but it won’t be easy and I can’t see the destruction that the bookies are forecasting.
Mirassol v Corinthians (7pm)
Here comes another opportunity for Corinthians to show how little they actually care about the Paulista championship, They’ve scored a paltry 1 goal in 2 games picking up just the one point after losing in round two at home to Ponte Preta. Corinthians will once again try a new formation this one including 5 defenders and non of their big name players. My only concern this game is Mirassol’s defending on set pieces; their coach has said he has said that his side have been working on set pieces so I’m expecting a much better defensive performance from the side. Mirassol and Corinthians don’t have any real pace in their sides so there’s no real chance of a counter attacking goal by either side which is a major factor in choosing this bet.
Mogi Mirim v XV de Piracicaba (9:30pm)
Mogi Mirim gave a classic performance on how to counter last game against Pernapolense as they sucked them in and as Perna threw players forward they used their wingers fantastically to rip Perna apart. XV have scored in all 5 of their previous games and they are a side who excels when it comes to set pieces, especially corners because the movement of the XV defenders can be extremely difficult to pick up which is the main reason they score over 60% of their goals from set pieces so I expect them to add to that total against Mogi Mirim which could prove to be a fantastic match.
Lewis’s football tips:
Palmeiras vs Penapolense- Palmeiras score both halves (1.9 Paddy Power)
Bragantino vs Santos – Santos win (1.79 Marathon)
Flamengo vs Volta Redonda – Under 3 goals (1.78 Pinnacle)
Mirassol vs Corinthians – Under 2.5 goals (1.98 Betdaq)
Mogi Mirim vs XV de Piracicaba – BTTS yes (1.72 Stan James)