Three football tips from myself this Sunday, after 4/4 and 3/4 the last two Sundays I am starting to enjoy the day of rest! 3/3 today would certainly make me like them a whole lot more!
Catania v Fiorentina (2pm)
This situation is almost identical to that of two weeks ago when Catania hosted Roma. The bookies have low prices (as do the exchanges) on the more well known Fiorentina as people will punt on them due to their reputation and publicity they get. Catania are far less known around Europe, which keeps their price high. Call it our little secret. If you took the time to look though, you’d see a side at home that have won 7/11 at home, losing to AC and Juventus, and holding Napoli to a 0-0 draw. They have scored 2+ 6 times at home this season and conceded more than 1 just twice (3-2 win and 3-1 defeat). Fiorentina are a strong side of course. However, with just three wins on the road this season (from 10 games), a victory here will be hard to come by. This is a value bet, where the odds outweigh the actual chance of a win, but Fiorentina ‘could’ get something. I’d go with 1-0 or 1-1 for this fixture.
Stuttgart v Bayern Munich (4:30pm)
Bayern’s away form has been almost perfect this season. Barring their 1-1 draw at Nurnburg, they have won 7 times without conceding. They come up against a Stuttgart side who know how to find the back of the net, but can’t seem to stop leaking them at the other end. With 30 conceded in 18 games so far, it is only their decent strike force (fronted by Ibisevic) that they are in 10th, without his 10 goals they would be struggling at the wrong end of the table. With such a strong defence on the road, the test will be whether Bayern can cope with Stuttgart’s attacking threat. I expect they will, and I also expect Stuttgart to struggle to cope with the away side that average 2.5 goals per game on the road. To get to a worthwhile bet, you have to use the Asian Handicap market, but believe this stands a lot more than a 50% chance of success. Value.
Mallorca v Malaga (8pm)
Malaga have played 9 away games this season, and just one game has seen more than 2 goals. In fact, that is the only game where both teams scored also. They have had 6 clean sheets from the 9 games, but also failed to score on 5 occasions. More than half of Mallorca’s home ties have been under 2.5 too (5/9). This is a rare occasion where you have to go with the statistics. Although you’d expect Malaga to win the tie, there are such fine margins between the odds and the % chance when there should be low goals that the risk outweighs the reward. Malaga simply do not do exciting away games in the league.
Terry’s Football Tips
Catania v Fiorentina – Catania +0.25 (1.91 – Betfair)
Stuttgart v Bayern Munich – Bayern -1.50 (2.15 – Bet365)
Mallorca v Malaga – Under 2.50 (1.78 – Bet Victor)