After another stunning weekend on the hard court, it’s my job first and foremost to keep realistic and make sure all of our feet stay on the ground. The reality is we’re all going to have good runs, and we’re going to have bad runs, and this is where the long term comes in. As long as you can look at any given week and say you’ve made a profit… You should always be smiling. I’m saying this because it’s inevitable we’ll have a losing day eventually, and in my experience they always hurt x10 more when you’re on a run like this. Remember – long term! That said, do I think that night’s going to be tonight? Hell no! I’m confident as always and we’re straight back on the winning trail tonight with a few more NBA Tips!
Indiana Pacers @ Denver Nuggets (2.05am)
The Denver Nuggets are one of the best home teams in the NBA, and they play an exciting brand of Basketball at home that I’m sure you’ll see tonight. The Nuggets are averaging 108 points per game at home and that’s been enough to see them outscore their opponents by an average of over 9 point. They’re priced as a -5.5 favorite in this game against a Pacers side with an equally strong home record, but just a 10-15 road record. The Pacers can play some tough defense but their road average of 88 points a game is a full 20 less than Denver’s home average against any and all comers and I feel it’s going to take a big, big effort that maybe the Pacers just don’t have to keep this one close. The line seems off to me. Say even if the Pacers turned up and gave a much improved defensive performances and knocked 10 points off of the Nuggets average and kept them below 100 – which is seriously unlikely – they’d still need to find a way to be more productive on offense to close the gap between them. Statistically there’s a big gap between them and I think it should be reflected on the court. Not only that, but factor in the Nuggets have a 12-4 record against the Pacers in their last 16 meetings and the Pacers also hold a WEAK record when it comes to covering spreads against teams with a winning record. The Nuggets, have a strong winning record
Sacramento Kings @ Washington Wizards (12.05am)
I’ll start this preview the way I start every single preview that involves the Washington Wizards – give me one reason why I shouldn’t bet on them? There isn’t one. They’ve now improved to 10-0 against the spread in their last 10 games. They’ve beaten the likes of Oklahoma and kept tight with the Clippers. They’ve also seen off Denver, Chicago Bulls and even won in Portland! whilst winning a lot at home. Of those 10 spread covers, they’ve won 7. What I like about this game is one of their rare losses during a long and successful recent stretch was actually against the Kings. That for me says the Wizards will be motivated tonight but more importantly they’ve destroying teams and they’re once again capable of blowing teams out on their home court. Sacramento have a 4-17 road record, and guess what else? They suck. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a blowout tonight. Back Washington and their Wizard John Wall.
Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors (12.05am)
Tonight I think we see the Warriors bounce back. They’ve been a good bounce back team all season and had they not lost their last two in a row, which they have, then the line would be higher than it is. The Raptors have struggled to cover spreads against teams with winning records and are just 4-10 against the spread when facing teams with a strong winning record like the Warriors have. I definitely think Curry and the Warriors will be motivated going in to tonight’s game, and in my opinion Curry just may be playing with a little extra motivation after the all star snub. This guy easily deserves to be in the all star team in my opinion, but he isn’t. The main priority for him though remains helping this Golden State side reach the end of season playoffs, and with 7 teams having a more winning record than the Warriors and several teams having equal wins, the business end of the season will be here faster than you think and playoff teams can’t really afford to be losing to the Raptors. Take GSW to cover a small spread.
Denver Nuggets -5.5 @ 1.97 with Matchbook
Washington Wizards -7.5 @ 1.97 with Matchbook
Golden State Warriors -1.5 @ 1.97 with Matchbook