Finally it’s my first full day of La Liga action – Saturday’s matches giving a great opportunity to build on consistent profits with some cracking Spanish football tips.
Osasuna v Celta Vigo (3:00pm)
Osasuna have slipped directly back into their ways of last season, by keeping games as tight as possible and hoping they can last out for a draw. The lack of creative force within the squad has meant they average only 0.9 goals in their home games (even lower in their away games). They’ve been one of the more volatile teams this season and as a result have remained in the lower echelons of the league table. Celta Vigo on the other hand have been one of my bigger underperformers of the season, with only 5 wins to their name so far, despite having a squad of relatively good quality. They have been quite unlucky with their results in general and are certainly a good side to handicap against bigger teams as they don’t really do large defeats (only Barca have won by more than a single goal). An interesting statistic is that both of these sides love a half time draw: Osasuna have 13 this season, with Celta amassing 10. I like the look of backing another slow start here, which looks immediately overpriced by the bookmakers. This is only supported by team news, with both sides missing key offensive players, which can only support the bet further.
Espanyol v Levante (7:00pm)
Espanyol have been the classic case of a change in management being positive on results. In their last 8 games, they have only been defeated once; away at Barcelona. They have been particularly good at home, with three consecutive victories, albeit all to smaller sides that are struggling to survive this season. Levante’s season has gradually wound down, with their away form in particular taking a turn for the worse. They now have three defeats on the bounce on the road, not managing to score a goal on any of these occasions – something that has historically been a case with Levante. In contrast to Espanyol however, these games have been against some of the best sides in the league (Rayo, Betis and Atletico), all of whom have very impressive records this year. I anticipate this being a very tight and scrappy game with 1 goal deciding it either way. With such a scoreline in mind, and unders priced too short for interest, I like the look of taking Levante on a positive handicap. Although many will look to the form and ridicule this bet, the line is too high in my opinion and therefore represents good value.
James’ Spanish Football Tips:
Osasuna v Celta Vigo – Half Time Draw (2.1 Blue Square)
Espanyol v Levante – Levante +0.5 (1.82 Pinnacle)