This is a huge round of state championship football with some really fascinating games, I’ve been planning these bets now for the last ten days due to the severity and importance behind some of these fixtures.
Santos vs Sao Paulo (7PM)
The Sao Paulo derby is always a huge game in these parts of the world and these two sides are the only real teams with a realistic chance of winning the Paulista championship this season. Sao Paulo have a 100% record so far although they’ve only played two games due to their commitments in the Copa Libertedores. Santos’s defence never ever gives me the slightest bit of confidence especially centre half Durval who would be more suited to UFC with his tackling at times. Both of these sides are going to want to win this game and get an early psychological edge on their opponents. Now to the technical side of this bet, Sao Paulo will try to start the as quickly as possible in the hope of getting an early lead this is because in the last 20 minutes of the game they’ll fade physically and fast. Sao Paulo played away to Bolivar earlier in the week and because of the altitude this will have effected all the players oxygen intake which will cause up to a 20% increase in lactic acid levels compared to players that have not been exposed to levels of high altitude. Keeping all that in mind then I think Sao Paulo will probably take an early lead but wouldn’t be surprised to see Santos dominate the final spells of the game which is the reason I’ll be choosing overs.
Corinthians vs Oeste (7PM)
Corinthians big guns are finally back in action, in fact they were last game against Mogi Mirim but as expected they were a bit sluggish and struggled to see off the minnows 2-1. Having got that first game out of the way I’m confident the real Corinthians will show up this game against a very poor Oeste side who just seem really low on confidence. At some point this game were expected to see Corinthians new boy Alexandre Pato who will be desperate to pick up a debut goal for his new club. I’m expecting a very similar side that saw off Chelsea in the club world cup final and if Corinthians play to their ability then this bet will be won within the first half. I cannot see anything but a completely dominant performance and win by Corinthians.
Flamengo vs Nova iguacu (7PM)
So far in Flamengo’s opening 4 games we’ve took bets in all of them and managed to win them all so I’m going in looking for that fifth straight win and will once again be looking at the goal line. Flamengo were very impressive in midweek managing to beat Vasco and score four goals in the process which is no mean feat against a defensively sturdy Vasco. I have been very impressed with Flamengo forward Rafinha who at the age of 19 has become a pivotal point of Flamengo’s attack during the early stages of the state championship, the young forward has managed to provide 4 assists as well as getting himself 1 goal in the process. I can see this being a comfortable Flamengo win come the end of the game but Nova will make them work hard for it.
Botafogo SP vs Guarani (9:30PM)
After another midweek loss for Guarani this time at home to Bragantino the club seems to be in free fall with problems on and off the field. Gurani’s players have apparently lost faith in their managers ability and we all know where that normally leads. Botafogo SPhave proved all the early doubters wrong so far (including myself) by picking up 7 points out of a possible 12. Botafogo have won both of their home games thus far and I’m expecting them to make that 3/3 tonight against a Guarani side that are unbelievably low on confidence.
XV de Piracicaba vs Palmeiras (9:30PM)
A much better performance from Palmeiras in midweek against a poor Sao Bernardo side gave Pal the 3 points and more importantly at the moment the confidence to once again play their football. Argentine forward Hernan Barcos looked back to his old self as he sprung the offside trap several times on his way to scoring a brace. XV are a talented side on their day but with a couple of injury doubts in defence I think they’ll struggle against the Palmeiras front three of Barcos, Leite and Vinicius. I can see Pal snatching this game which should lead to them going on a bit of a run in the Paulista championship.
Santos vs Sao Paulo – Over 2.5 goals (1.72 Stan James)
Corinthians vs Oeste – Corinthians -1.5 (2.03 Pinnacle)
Flamengo vs Nova iguacu – over 2.5 goals (1.75 Pinnacle)
Botafogo SP vs Guarani – Botafogo SP (1.98 Marathon)
XV de Piracicaba vs Palmeiras – Palmeiras win (1.90 bet365)