Football Tips 03/02/13Comments Off

Four tips again today, Sunday still proving to be my best day from a personal point of view. I provided 13 tips on Sundays in January, winning 11. This gave £150.60 profit from our suggested £20 single stakes (57.9% ROI)!! Let’s keep that going…

West Brom v Spurs (1:30pm)

With just one victory in their last 10 EPL fixtures, West Brom’s impressive start to the season is now all but forgotten. Odemwingie’s transfer debacle on deadline day won’t have helped much either. They have been looking to regain their home form, but as of yet have struggled since their 2-1 win over Chelsea in November. Winning just one of their last 5 at home, Wes Brom will have wanted to come in to this tough tie with more points under their belt. Stoke, Villa, West Ham, Norwich and Fulham was a ‘relatively’ easy run they’d have expected maybe 9+ points, so to come in to this game in the run they are is not very encouraging. Spurs have quietly gone about their business without setting the world alight. They now find themselves in 4th place, just 4 points behind Chelsea. The value lies with the away side for sure, and at above evens, backing the outright win is great value. 0-2 prediction

FC Twente v Utrecht (1:30pm)

With 6 clean sheets in their last 9 at home, Twente’s success is largely built around their defensive strength. It’s worth pointing out that both teams have scored in just 4 of Twente’s last 15 league games. Utrecht have the second best defensive record this season, behind Twente… looking at that alone is enough to establish that there is value in the Under/Over market. I am half tempted to advise Under 1.5 goals, but this is risky and harder to predict, as individual instances in a game can impact the likelihood of a 0/1 goal game. Instead, I think we can give a little leeway based on the odds. The Ducth league is hyped constantly for it’s crazy score lines and high scoring games, but this isn’t always valid, and Dutch games are averaging only 0.14 more goals per game than the Premier League this season. It is this misconception that gives us this value bet today. 1-0 either way wouldn’t surprise me, maybe 2-0 to Twente if they get on top early as they know how to protect a lead.

Siena v Inter Milan (2pm)

After their away form keeping them in touch at the top earlier in the season, Inter’s point from the 1-1 draw at Roma was their first in 5 games on the road. Anything but three points today and they will likely drop off the pace of the top three. Siena, rock bottom of Serie A have almost nothing to be happy about. Their 1-0 win at home to Sampdoria is their only success in 8 outings, with 7 defeats – conceding 18 and scoring 7. On paper I would consider taking Inter Milan on the Asian Handicap, as I fell they are more than capable of a convincing victory. However, their away form has been poor of late, so I’ve ruled out the Asian Handicap. Instead, thanks to there being some solid value in the market (no doubt thanks to the 2-2 draw at home to Torino – who are actually a solid Serie A side), we can back them simply to win, and STILL get above evens. Another value bet; 1-2 or 0-2 correct score.

Palermo v Atalanta (2pm)

Italy seems to be very good for finding value at the minute. Catania have been underrated a fair bit this season, and the same goes for Palermo – at home at least. What, just three home wins from 10? Take a further look and you’ll see they’ve lost just 3 fixtures at home; against Napoli, Juventus and Fiorentina. They’ve managed a 2-2 draw with Lazio too, so against teams outside the top 6 they’ve actually P6 W3 D3 L0 at home. Away from home they’ve been poor, but they create chances and are a dangerous side. Atalanta have lost their last 5 league games on the road, and have failed to score in their last three. I feel quite strongly about a home win in this fixture, but can’t completely rule out the draw, so my tip reflects that. I expect 2+ goals from the home side, and think the away side could sneak a goal. Based on that, I think this is the only option for this game. Correct score: 2-1.

Terry’s Football Tips

West Brom v Spurs – Spurs Win (2.20 – Betfair)

Twente v Utrecht – Under 2.5 (2.15 – Bet Victor)

Siena v Inter Milan – Inter Win (2.24 – Betfair)

Palermo v Atalanta – Palermo -0.25 (1.98 – Ladbrokes)

About Terry

I have years of experience in the industry, working in both a professional football and betting environment

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