A poor weekend last weekend, so extra work has gone in this weekend to ensure solid profits from all 4 of us at terrytipster.com. Still very happy with our progress, and if we have 4 great weekends for every one bad one, I think I can live with that
Tottenham v Newcastle (12:45pm)
After their unconvincing victory last Sunday, and a lack of strikers, Spurs come in to this fixture with a difficult task. They face a rejuvenated Newcastle side who have embraced their new signings and appear to be playing with increased confidence and belief. The odds for this fixture are swaying far too much towards Spurs. I’m not saying they can’t get all three points, but I fancy taking them on today. Obviously, I don’t recommend backing Newcastle outright (although 5.6 is tempting), but looking at the information for this fixture we can get value and cover by backing the away side. Newcastle have scored in 75% of games on the road this campaign, and despite losing 7, have lost just 3 by 2 or more goals. Spurs have been solid at home, but have won only three times by 2+ goals – unsurprisingly, these three victories all included Defoe who will be absent through injury… Newcastle’s new signings have added a bit more conviction to their attacking play, so expect at least one from the away side. I am very confident that this will be a push at worst.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Nurnberg (2:30pm)
This has to be my favourite bet of the weekend, top value despite being odds on. Frankfurt have impressed this season and deservedly sit in 4th, and are within touching distance of both Dortmund and Leverkusen. After coming up last season, this is highly impressive. Supporting striker Alex Meier has managed 12 in 20 appearances so far this season and with goals from elsewhere too, it is their attacking strengths that have got them into this great league position. In their 10 home games in the Bundesliga, they have score 2 or more on 8 occasions and average 2.5 goals per game. Nurnburg have been poor on the road, and have scored just 3 times in their last 8 away games, picking up just two points. With a shaky defence too (17 in last 9 away), I’d be surprised if Frankfurt don’t win this comfortably, to nil and be leading at half time. I have been toying with what to tip for this game, swaying from “Home Win” (1.93) to “Home -1.50” (3.20).
Stoke City v Reading (3pm)
This fixture pairs up the two least attacking sides based on shots information (Stoke with slightly over 8 per game, Reading with 9). Reading have been on fire of late, losing just once in their last 7 games. Their attitude/determination has caught a few sides out in the later stages of games and can only be to their credit. Their 2-1 win at Newcastle was their first win on the road in the league this season, and I think they will trouble Stoke today. It is surprising how influential current form can be, especially when the improvement is as drastic as Reading’s. Stoke are going the other way. Previously renowned for their defensive strength, their recent displays have seen them uncharacteristically leaking sloppy goals. Without a clean sheet in 6 at home, and having conceded 9 in their last three at the Britannia, a clean sheet here seems unlikely. Without any prolific strikers, or midfielders that regularly create clear cut chances, a home win seems less likely than the 1.80 odds would suggest. Instead, again, I’m favouring the away side on the Asian Handicap.
Bayern Munich v Schalke (5:30pm)
Bayern’s dominance this season has been incredible so far, and they rightly sit 12 points clear at the top of the Bundesliga. Amazingly, they are yet to win by just one goal; if they’ve won, they have always won by 2+ goals, thus covering the -1.50 handicap. 16 times this season (from 20 games – 80%) the -1.50 Asian Handicap will have won when backing Bayern. Why should today be any different? They are at home, against a severely faltering Schalke side who have lost 4 of their last 5 on the road, 3 by 2+ goals. They are also finding goals harder to come by. Last weekend, they missed the creativity of Holtby and will undoubtedly miss him again today. Their clean sheet at 17th placed Augsburg is their only one in 7 on the road, having previously conceded 14 in 6 away ties. The strength of the home side means backing slightly above -1.50 should be achievable. Schalke average a decent number of attempts on goal, but recently this has decreased significantly, and I expect Bayern to win to nil as they have done 14 times already this season.
Terry’s Football Tips
Spurs v Newcastle – Newcastle +1.00 (1.75 – Bet365)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Nurnberg – Frankfurt Win (1.89 – Betfair)
Stoke v Reading – Reading +0.50 (2.02 – Bet365)
Bayern Munich v Schalke – Bayern -1.75 (1.92 – Bet365)