NBA Tips – 10/02Comments Off

Today is Sunday and you know what that means? It means it’s our favorite day of the week! A 7-2 run across all Sunday’s and we are yet to make a loss on a single Sunday tip list, and today finally gives us a busy Sunday. An easy 1-0 with what I always thought was a sure bet last night, and tonight we’ll be looking to turn our mini 3-1 run since Friday in to real profit. Until now I’ve only had 3 or 4 games to work with. Today we have 9, as well as two awesome TV games where the Clippers will face the Knicks and the Lakers will meet with the Heat and these games can be seen on Sky Sports 2, from 6pm onwards. *Please note there’s a possibility I’ll add bets for the late games around 7pm*

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies – (11.00pm) – (****)

Tonight the beaten up Timberwolves to take on a Grizzlies side that should be full of confidence on home court after  an impressive home win over the Golden State Warriors. Marc Gasol was the best player on the court as he scored 20 and made it look easy in the process. There are several key factors that make me think this is a really good bet, and one of my stronger bets of the season so far perhaps – nearly on par with the Nuggets and definitely on par with yesterdays bet. The Grizzlies at home are the best defense in the NBA. No personal opinion about it, the stats tell you they are undeniably the best. They have given up an average of only 90 points at home and although that sounds a big number, it really isn’t in the NBA when we’ve seen some good sides like the Nuggets or the Thunder score 110-125 on a regular basis, and the Rockets with the odd 130-140. It’s most impressive when you note they’ve played some pretty good offensive teams at home. The Timberwolves struggle to average just a couple of points above 90 as it is, and I think solid defense can hold them below 90 tonight, maybe even to as few as 80. Of all the names this Timberwolves team would have wanted on the court from at the start of the season, 3 of them miss tonight. Love and Kirilenko are of course definitely out, but it’s quite possibly that Barea wll also miss out or at least only play smaller minutes with an ankle injury. Barea has been the go to guy for the Wolves in the absence of their other big players, and I think tonight is going to be a very tough night against the best defense in the NBA with an injury list and a lack of depth, as well as wondering where abouts the majority of your already low points total may come from. It’s a bigger number on the spread just as last night, but just like the 76ers against the lowly Bobcats, I think it’s fair to expect a double digit margin of victory right here! They key player in this game is of course Marc Gasol, and being that we haven’t had a bet featuring the Grizzlies so far, a lot of you might not know who he is. If he plays anything like he did against the Warriors, you’re in for an exciting watch from one of my favorite NBA players. This game is a must watch! Fingers crossed.

Denver Nuggets @Boston Celtics - (11.00pm)

The Nuggets are on a big, big roll right now, and this game is probably a potential let down spot for the betting public. Their will be a lot of money put on the Nuggets tonight at just a +2 road dog given their 9 game wins streak (covering 8 of the point spreads) but it’s obviously going to have to end at some point, and I don’t see why it can’t be here against the Celtics. This team is also playing well and are on a streak of their own. One of them has to give. The Celtics have now won 6 in a row and given the small lines bookies continue to put on them due to the average of Rajon Rondo, they’ve covered the spread in all 6 games, which has been great for anyone brave enough to back the Rondo-less Celtics. However, we know he’s out for the season and it took them all of about 12 minutes of Basketball to get over it an accept the fact they all need to step up as a team. Denver are a side we know and love but they actually have a losing 11-15 road record, and they come in to Boston to play their third game in four days, whilst the Celtics have had two full days of rest to prepare. In the last 12 meetings, the home side is actually 12-2 in this series, whilst the Celtics have won 5 of the last 6 home and on the road against the Nuggets, and all of their wins would have covered the -2 spread.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns- (1.00am)

This one is a tricky one because it’s definitely a trap door for the betting public. Oklahoma and Phoenix played just a few days back and the line 3 points less tonight, as the Thunder are 3 point favorites. The Suns really have motivation to keep this one close after getting blown out in Oklahoma, but the simple fact is this team doesn’t have the ability to match the Thunder. They’ve lost 9 straight in the series and if Oklahoma decide they want to blow out Phoenix.. they probably will. Their starters saw a lot of bench time in the first game, but the Thunder still came out with a 31 point win. Perkins, Selflosha, Westbrook and Martin all dropped 16-18 points whilst Durant led the team with 21 as the Thunder were allowed to make 15 three pointers. The Thunder put in a complete team performance and picked up 30 assists in the game whilst the Suns had Dragic with 6 and a couple players with 1 or 2. As I said the Thunder rested a fair few starters for a lot of minutes, as Durant played more than any other Thunder player, still only playing 31 of the 48 game minutes. The Thunder didn’t play last night and are well rested like the Suns, but I don’t see what difference a day can make when an offensive team like the Thunder look to take their current win streak to 4 against what is the worst team in the western conference. Dragic holds the team together best he can and Beasley made a nice 25 point contribution off the bench Friday, but the latter is unlikely for a second game in a row and the Thunder probably have 4 players you can say is on a level with Phoenix’s best player Dragic. The Suns are definitely really motivated here, but it has the potential to be another long night for them.

Houston Rockets @ Sacramento Kings – (2.00am)

Sorry I took so long over this one. Sometimes when you’re a Tipster, you’re bound to come across other tips and other peoples reports and you’re always bound to see them use stats or trends that sometimes makes you see things their way or change your opinion on a bet. A few reports I came across contained a few damning stats for this bet, but in the end I’ve decided on paper it’s such a straight forward bet and that’s all that matter. If it loses, it loses, but I can’t leave this bet off and then sit there and watch it win later when I don’t back it. On paper it’s plainly obvious that this game should be very high scoring. The Rockets recently dropped 145 points whilst the Kings dropped 120 last night at home. The Rockets are averaging 108ppg over the season and 117ppg over the last 5 games. And that’s been against good teams like the Heat. During that 5 game run however the Rockets have still given up 108 points, which leaves the average total at 225 for their last 5 NBA games. If both teams actually matched their NBA season average, the game would fall 12 points below the total. That is one HELL of a BIG number below and it’s unarguably a slightly off line. It’s been adjusted to take in to account the recent scoring trends, however if it wanted to account for the fact the Rockets have torn good teams to shreds, then the line would perhaps be even higher again because these two teams have an awful defense. The Kings average 101 points per game at home, but the majority of teams have gone and boosted their home points average when they’ve played the Rockets. Both teams again just have an AWFUL defence. We have the best offense in the league, two of the 5 worst defenses in the league and I’d say 2 of the 5 fastest teams in the league who will both have a lot of possessions to do damage to the other team, and both have players more than capable of dropping 3′s all night long given the floor space.


George’s Tips

Memphis Grizzlies -8.5 @ 1.97 with Matchbook
Boston Celtics -2 @ 2.00 with Matchbook
Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 @ 1.93 with Matchbook
Rockets/Kings Over 217 @ 1.95 with Matchbook

About George

Proven tipster specialising in the MLS, also record good profits the English Lower Leagues

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