There’s three more tips to complete this weekend – still aiming to build on long term profit both as an individual and as part of the site.
Real Zaragoza v Real Sociedad (4:00pm)
Real Zaragoza continue to be one of the most volatile sides in the league as they don’t seem to go on any streaks of note, whether win, lose or draw. Their most recent match away to Malaga goes to show that they should never be ruled out of getting a result. Like Real Betis, their away form has been better than at home, where they have a below average record of W3-D1-L6. It’s no secret that my club Real Sociedad are flying at the moment, who are now without a loss from their 12 most recent league games. They have however historically been a very poor away side, continuing this season without a win in 80% of their games on the road. Immediately looking at the prices, it’s clearly evident that Sociedad are overhyped and the price isn’t reflective of their true ability. I can personally envisage this as a game with chances few and far between, thus having a draw no bet line available at respectable odds is more than enough. History also favours this bet, with Zaragoza having 5 wins from their 5 most recent games and going further back in time, the record is still W18-D9-L6.
Athletic Bilbao v Espanyol (6:00pm)
Like Real Sociedad, Athletic Bilbao are a team I’d love to be backing if the price is right. Unfortunately it’s another case of the price going too far, with big money ploughing into backing them all week. This naturally creates some kind of value in backing the other side. The handicap on offer is a +/- 0.75, which Bilbao have covered in only 2 of their 11 home games. Granted, their recent form has been fantastic, but have still only won half of their home games all season. Espanyol on the other hand are showing equal signs of improvement, with the single loss against Barcelona being the only defeat in 9 games. They have only won a single away game all season, but the +0.75 handicap would have won in 5 matches and returned half a stake in another four. Once again, history is alongside this bet, with Bilbao’s record being W7-D8-L3 (which favours the handicap) and have only actually won by more than a single goal once in the past 19 years. On paper, this looks like a game that’s going to be far tighter than the market suggests.
Rayo Vallecano v Atletico Madrid (8:00pm)
Rayo Vallecano continue to impress in the upper half of the league table and despite their 2-1 loss away to Sevilla, they are completely deserving of their 7th position. At home they have been a force to be reckoned with, having W7-D1-L3 of their 11 games. Atletico Madrid added another home win to their tally when they hosted Betis at the weekend, but have generally been a poor away side. In fact, they sit 19th in the away form table, having amassed a single point from their last four trips away from the Calderon. Even in their four away wins, they have looked completely out shape and undeserving of their media hype. It must also be considered that this is a derby game and the home crowd will be rocking – they are one of the best supported home teams in my opinion. The bet of the weekend has to be taking Rayo on the positive handicap available.
James’ Spanish Football Tips:
Real Zaragoza v Real Sociedad – Real Zaragoza +0.00 (2.02 Pinnacle)
Athletic Bilbao v Espanyol – Espanyol +0.75 (1.99 Pinnacle)
Rayo Vallecano v Atletico Madrid – Rayo Vallecano +0.25 (2.09 Pinnacle)