Just three tips from me today after having four for the previous few weeks. Less value out and about so I’ve gone for those that offer a good price and that should give us some profit.
Parma v Genoa (11:30am)
A tough early game to call in Serie A today. You would expect Parma to take all three points but Genoa have only lost 2 of their last 5 on the road, drawing 1-1 at both Inter Milan and Juventus. This won’t be a walk in the park for Parma, and to be honest, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the away side take the lead. The Genoa strike force is actually decent, with Immobile and Borriello both causing problems for opposition defences this season. They’ll cause some problems for sure, but the home attack perhaps even more dangerous, with ex Juve player Amauri; Algerian Ishak Belfodil and young Nicola Sansone scoring 16 goals between them. They have a solid midfield too, with plenty of attacking threats. Parma create more chances, but haven’t been ruthless enough in front of goal. Both teams to score here is the best bet, with slightly lower odds than over 2.5, but obviously covers the 1-1 draw, which wouldn’t surprise me. Parma’s 2-0 defeat at Fiorentina was their first BTTS NO outcome in 10 games (in 9/10). Genoa have seen BTTS come in in 8 of their last 12. Evens is too high.
Freiburg v Fortuna Dusseldorf (4:30pm)
Two tips from this fixture today; something I don’t do very often, but in this instance, I believe it is a sensible option. If either bet wins, then profit is guaranteed, but if one comes in there is a strong chance the other will too. After a decent start to the season, where they kept 3 clean sheets in their first 3 away games, Dusseldorf have now lost 5 of their last 6 on the road without a clean sheet. With just two clean sheets in their last 15 league games, Freiburg will be confident of a dominant performance. With four clean sheets in their last 5 home games, Freiburg will also hope to keep out Dusseldorf for the 90 minutes, although they have scored in 4 of their last 5 on the road. After Freiburg’s defeat at Hoffenheim, and two 0-0 draws previous to that, you will be surprised to see that I believe overs to be the value bet for this fixture. Dusseldorf have conceded early in several away games this season, and Freiburg often score early on. These early goals increase the expectation of further goals and to get above 11/10 is a worthwhile bet. Interestingly, 2+ Freiburg goals is priced at 1.73, implying bookies also see home goals as very possible. This further highlights the value in the Overs market.
Terry’s Football Tips
Parma v Genoa – Both Teams to Score YES (2.00 – Betway)
Freiburg v Dusseldorf – Freiburg -1.00 (2.14 – Betfair)
Freiburg v Dusseldorf – Over 2.5 Goals (2.12 – Betfair)