Less talk, more action. Sunday was a 4-0 and it was great. Last night it was an 0-3, and I didn’t like it. It was the first time I’ve ever had a betting day without at least 1 NBA win involved in my 6 weeks on Terry Tipster, and it’s only the second time I went without a single win and had an 0-3 night or worse since late November. It’s been a rare occurrence, and I’d put my money where my mouth is and say I won’t be doing that two nights in a row. I don’t like losing. On to Tuesday’s NBA. Remember, my **** play rating doesn’t means lump on a guaranteed winner, it just means it’s one of my favorite/strongest plays of the month. I considered giving ratings to all plays, but I didn’t want to discourage people from betting on riskier bets and missing possible winners.
Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies – (1.00am) – (****)
The NBA is a stat based sport, and point spreads are all about stats. Are the Grizzlies going to beat the Kings? On paper, of course they should. Should they cover a spread and beat them by double digit points? Yeah, on paper, we’d think so. I’m just going to bombard you with all the stats and lines that make this bet as strong as it is however. The Grizzlies have a 20-8 home record and a 17-9-2 on the points spread front. The Grizzlies are 15-0 when scoring 100+ points. On average the Kings are getting out rebounded by 4 rebounds per game whilst the Grizzlies already average 4 more rebounds per game. Throw in the size of Gasol and Randolph and I think the Grizzlies can shut down the likes of LaMarcus in this area. Sacramento are averaging a shade above 96 points per game, but have an average against of 103 – a 7 point differential over the space of the season. The Grizzlies are a tight defensive side, the best in the NBA in fact, and allow just 87 points per game at home As I said the Kings have one of the worst NBA defences, ranking 4th last in rebound, steals and block stats – a fair way behind the Grizzlies in 15th – and average 103.3 points per game against and on the other side of the court only twice have the Kings scored 100 on the road this season. More of the offensive side, I also see the assists as a factor. Whilst both teams average just close to 19 and 20 assists per game respectively, the Kings out assisted the Grizzlies heavily on the averages until recent trades. Now, since the trade of Prince, the Grizzlies have recorded 121 assists on their last 168 baskets and that’s over 65%. And that’s Basketball a poor Kings defence might not be able to live with.
Another interesting note in the match ups department is that Thomas has dropped 5 over his last two outings, but has been hold to an average of 20% shooting by the Grizzlies on the season. Those stats came from a 32 point Grizzlies win in Sacramento, and a smaller 16 point win in a 85-69 home victory. I think whilst you can’t rely on the Grizzlies holding them to that small number here again (although there’s a solid 9/10 chance) this offense has also improved ten fold with Prince and the assists they’re picked up, rather than just letting Rudy Gay pick up all of the points. Gasol has and always will be number #1 on this team anyway, and the trio of Randolph, Gasol and Prince on the floor killed Minnesota on the weekend. Rudy is an up tempo player and the Grizzlies are a slow and methodical defence based team. Gay didn’t like that and I think it held the Grizzlies offense back in its flow as much as he was their leading point scorer, I think Prince is a better fit for this team, as he’ll fit the system and spread the ball as the assists stat shows. The Grizzlies regularly put up 100+ at home, and tying in with their 15-0 run when doing so is a very good spread run also, as they’ve clinched their 20 home wins this season by an average of 11.4 points. Their smallest was a 4 point victory, whilst the biggest was a 25 point blowout.
Denver Nuggets @ Toronto Raptors – BIG VALUE play! – (12.00am)
Wow! A smaller deflated line and an amazing price above evens on matchbook!! We are getting some serious value here. The overtime loss for the Nuggets snapped a 9 game win streak before it got to 10, but the Celtics were the favorites in that game and the Nuggets keep pretty much within a score of them right until the buzzer at the end of the 3. The Nuggets even lead with less than 5 seconds left in both overtimes, after leveling near the buzzer in regulation time. On another night Garnett and Pearce wouldn’t have scored buzzer 3′s, and this unstoppable looking Nuggets team would have been looking to rack up a likely 11th win in a row here tonight. The Raptors are much improved and a half decent Basketball side at home, especially with the addition of Rudy Gay who has averaged 23.4 over the last two games and grabbed his fair share of boards, but is that going to be enough to see off the likes of Faried? He’s far from the best player in the NBA, way off, but he’s actually my favorite NBA player and he was like a man possessed at times during the Celtics game and he plays so hard every night. Sunday was just a single loss, and in the circumstances it doesn’t convince me it’s enough to knock Denver off track. Both teams played OUT of their SKIN, and deserved so much credit. The Nuggets have covered 20 of 28 spreads on the back of their last 28 losses. They’ve also got a strong 9-1 spread record when playing a team with a winning % below 40%. All in all, I think the Rudy Gay factor, the heartbreak of the Celtics loss and bookmaker uncertainty accounts for a -2 line that should be closer to -6 or so. I’ll definitely try Denver out here.
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors – (3.30am)
Don’t be scared by the current scoring of the Houston Rockets. They put up 140 against Utah as well as blowing out a few other teams recently, but they came back down to earth against the defensively inept Sacramento Kings in a 117-111 loss during our Over 217 bet on Sunday. The Rockets have a losing record on the road at a poor 10-17, whilst the Golden State Warriors have a strong 16-6 home record. The Rockets are 15 games off the pace in the Southwest Division, and have won 3 less games than their conference opponents here. The Warriors come in to the game as a modest -4.5 point spread favorites and whilst the scoring power of the Rockets will give the Warriors a run for their money, we have two very looking defenses and a whole bunch of favorable stats. The Warriors have a 77% win percentage in games where they score 100+ points and Houston still only have a 24-12 record when scoring 100+ points. It shows how bad this defense can be and that’s reinforced by the 100+ points against category. Whilst it’s only natural a lot of teams will have a losing percentage when allowing their opponents to score 100+, Houston have a 13-20 record and it shows they’ve only their opponents to put up 100 points a huge 33 times this season! Not huge in comparison to some worse teams like the Bobcats or the Cavs, but considered this team is a top playoff chasing contender it’s quite bad. The Warriors have had 2 rest days and should be focused and ready to snap their current losing skid. And here are those favorable stats. The Rockets are giving up 100+ points for fun right now, and the most interesting stat is they are 0-8 against the spread when playing after allowing 100+ in their previous two games. Well, they allowed 100+ in their previous two games and they play tonight. A favorable stat indeed reinforced by their 3-13 spread record on the road when playing after losing their last road game, like in Sacramento on Sunday. Also, the Warriors have covered over 70% of their point spreads after dropping back to back games and then returning home in the past 3 seasons. They’re a strong bounce back team and they’ll be ready for the poorer road version of the Rockets tonight.
Memphis Grizzlies -9 @ 1.95 with YouWin
Golden State Warriors -5 @ 1.94 with Matchbook
Denver Nuggets -2 @ 2.01 with Matchbook
Denver Nuggets +2 @ 1.97 with Matchbook – I may well regret this big time. I understand the risk, I’ll leave it up to you. I just think this could potentially be such a tight game. I won’t remove the -2. That was tipped and that’s done now, and that was my first and original tip. I’m throwing this line in their two based on that slightly damning team news. Every point counts in the NBA and I had I heard the news first, then saw the +2, I’d of been happy to take that. If I end up down £40 from this one game then, well – I’m an idiot but I just want to take this line also and put it out there for you guys. If you’re taken -2 already, up to you whether you stick or twist. Good luck. Eep.