Let’s not hide we are 0-6 last two nights, but let’s not hide we’re still over £300 up. That’s always the key. I’m tackling this NBA season as three phases. Pre All Star Break, mid-end season, and then the home stretch and playoffs. Tonight is our last night before the all star break and we’ll be back on Tuesday. Whatever happens tonight, we’ll go roughly worst case scenario + £300 up after my first phase. Phase two starts Tuesday. Whatever happens tonight, I know we have our long term profit secured, but let’s hope for a nice bounce back night anyway. We deserve it.
Atlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic (12.00am)
Well, 3 has hardly been a magic number this week. But tonight this is the first of 3 tips, and I’m going to avoid a small spread and take odds that are just about good enough to take for an outright win. I was impressed with how the Hawks won in Dallas on Monday, and tonight they travel to an Orlando side that had lost 12 straight before beating the Trailblazers. They’ve been poor at home this year at home and on the road and at home they’ve covered big spreads well, but no simple ones. They’re 8-17 against the spread at home this season and Atlanta have covered 3 of 4 spreads within this range that they are favored by tonight. They’re also beaten the Magic twice this season. Once at home and once on the road, holding the Magic to an average of 76 points in that game. Hawks aren’t even that great defensively, but they did it. They’re a good offense and the likes of Josh Smith – who scored 26 points in Dallas on Monday – should pose unanswered questions all night and I think the Hawks can win a game where they’re a -4 favorite.
Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons (12.30am)
Someone said to me the other day On Twitter – why didn’t you take the Wizards? And y’know what, they were right. Why didn’t I take the Wizards? We love this team and they’ve been very good to us. We almost owe it to John Wall. Of course, we aren’t going to back them purely for the sake of it, but I do think they’re a rather trustworthy team who are just smashing the spread right now. On paper they’re a poor losing team, but as always we aren’t asking for a win. They’re a strong covering team. The Pistons are a low scoring team who although have been playing good Basketball but not been scoring as well as they have previously They’re a low scoring team and the Wizards are holding teams to 87.5 points. The Wizards covered more than 10 spreads in a row. They dropped 1, and now have covered the last 4 straight. That’s 14 of the last less than 20 spreads they’ve covered and that is a hard to ignore run. Whilst teams do lose by 1 and 2 and cover small spreads often, I think it’ll probably be a bit all or nothing tonight with the Wizards needing to win. Regardless of what happens, can you blame me for taking this team given the circumstances? Let’s back the Wizards and hope Wall keeps his current form going when they roll in to face a regular Pistons team.
Sacramento Kings @ Dallas Mavericks (1.00am)
Tonight is definitely an important night. We’d like a winning night after two losing ones, and although we are going to go in to the All Star Break at the end of our first phase of NBA betting up at least £300, I still want to try and exploit a busy schedule tonight. The Kings played last night and lost by 7 points to a Grizzlies team who we took -9. The loss was hard to take as the Grizzlies were covering for a big period and only dropped the spread with one of the last shots of the game. Tonight, the Kings travel to Dallas on the second night of a back to back and it puts them in a pretty tough scheduling spot against two very good sides. 10 seems a much bigger number when you see a – in front of it as opposed to a +, but why change a winning formula. My stats and analysis suggest to me this spread can be covered, so I’m going to give it a shot. It’s not only back to back games for the Kings but also their 4th game in 5 days. They have a 5-22 road record and they’ve lost by an average of 10.5 points per game. Obviously they don’t literally lose by 10 points every game, they’ve won a share and covered some spreads, so it goes to show when they do go down double digits they often get blown out by 20 and more. Dallas have won the last 13 games against the Kings. They’ve also covered -10 in all of their home meetings dating back 3 seasons and the Kings have covered just 4 of 22 games against Dallas. Dallas also has a strong record of covering 10-1 spreads when playing having only on day of rest. It seems the day off is never enough to kill the momentum but enough to refresh and bring some new ideas out of practice for the Mavs. Dallas are playing their best ball of the season also, and are on a 13-3 against the spread run.
Atlanta Hawks win @ 1.75 with Matchbook
Washington Wizards +3 @ 1.82 with Marathon
Dallas Mavericks -10 @ 1.95 with Matchbook