After two tough weekends I am looking to really move forward and start hitting some profits. I am confident in how I calculate the value, and that long term it will be profitable for us all. I have three today…
Leverkusen v Augsburg (2:30pm)
Leverkusen have hit a bit of a slump recently, including a home defeat in their last fixture at the BayArena. They have now slipped in to third after that defeat to Dortmund, and two draws in their last two on the road. At home though, they have been extremely impressive, winning 7/10, losing only to Dortmund. They have kept five clean sheets and amassed an impressive 21 in 10 at home. 20 goals from Keißling and Schurrle show how prolific their strike force is, and with goals from midfield too, they will cause lowly Augsburg problems from the off. Unbeaten on the road in three, Augsburg may have increased confidence coming in to this fixture. However, these games were against three poor sides placed 12th, 15th and 18th. Against stronger sides they have been less successful, with 0 points from away games against anyone outside the bottom 7. Augsburg have conceded 2+ 6 times on the road this season, something that I am strongly expecting to happen again today. To get 1.95 on this bet is HUGE value. 3-0 home win.
Mainz v Schalke (2:30pm)
Surprising odds for this fixture, with a 6th places Mainz hosting a Schalke side with one win in their last 10 (5-4 win at home to Hannover). Away from home, Schalke have lost 5 and drawn 1 in their last 6, conceding 2+ in 5 of those. They have conceded 2+ in 8/11 away games this season; highlighting their defensive weaknesses. Mainz have managed 4 clean sheets at home this season, with 6 wins from their last 9. Losing only to Dortmund and Munich (and drawing 0-0 with 5th placed Freiburg). Put more simply, they have won every game at home against positions below them in the current league standings. Szalai has been key for Mainz, with 12 goals this campaign, and he should have a few chances against a Schalke defence who have one clean sheet in 12. With Ivanschitz supporting, I can see the home side winning and continuing Schalke’s poor form (with an average of 2 goals conceded on the road). 2-0 home win.
Roma v Juventus (9:45pm)
With their away form being more impressive than their home form this season; Juventus come in to this game with one away defeat in 30 Serie A games. Roma have been very inconsistent this season and is partly why they now sit in 9th place, 21 points behind their opposition. Juventus adopted a professional approach in midweek to come from Scotland with a foot already in the UCL ¼ finals, and it is this mentality that has been at the forefront of their domestic success too. Failing to score just twice on the road this season (1-0 at Milan and 0-0 at Fiorentina) shows they have the fire power to beat most, and with Roma’s leaky defence I doubt they will struggle in Rome tonight. Roma have conceded an appalling 18 goals in their last 7 games, so 2+ away goals looks highly probable. Pair this with a Juve defence that hasn’t conceded more than once in 19 away games in Serie A and you’ll see where I’m headed. The Juve side oozes quality, and with their ablity to dicate the tempo I expect them to be in command for the vast majority of this fixture. 3-1 away win.
Terry’s Football Tips
Leverkusen v Augsburg – Leverkusen -1.00 (1.95 – Bet365)
Mainz v Schalke – Mainz -0.50 (2.30 – Boylesports)
Roma v Juventus – Juventus Win (2.20 – Bet365)