This weekend continues with another four tips, one of which was revealed earlier this week, all of them offering substantial value.
Real Sociedad v Levante (11:00am)
Real Sociedad are clearly the form side of the league, with their unbeaten run of games (excluding Real Madrid) continuing. Rather incredibly, they have also faced 10 men at some stage in all of their last 7 games, which in my opinion is even more of a crazy streak. Such a statistic doesn’t seem to have any relevance, but it is likely to distort their results and thus overhype them slightly. Levante on the other hand continue their slow downtrend away from the Europa league positions as their squad seemingly struggles with fixture condition. Ballesteros looks set to return for this match, giving their defence a much needed boost. Their trials and tribulations in the Europa league are also likely to limit any attacking and they will probably take a draw here. Once again, I’m falling back to the success of the HT draw strategy. Surprisingly, Real Sociedad have been one of the slowest starters in the league and have recorded HT draw results in 9 of their 12 home games. Such a statistic combined with the aforementioned negative attitude from Levante’s squad is likely to increase the chance of this, but for some reason the price is 2.25. I’m not convinced it’s a certain winner, but there’s absolutely no doubting there is massive value here.
Valladolid v Atletico Madrid (6:00pm)
Valladolid somehow managed to cling on for a draw away to Betis last week, despite being completely played off the park by the home side. They are still yet to register a victory without Ebert, but have shown a knack for grinding out results when needs be. Atletico on the other hand have been terrible away from home and as predicted have really struggled against decent home sides. They predictably were comfortably beaten away to Rayo Vallecano and I don’t think they’re in particularly good shape here either. Valladolid have only lost three home games this season and even without Ebert and co. I think they are good enough to get at least a draw out of this game. With Atletico’s midweek troubles in the Europa league, I only think there’s more value, to a pick that already has an abundance of it.
Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano (8:00pm)
Real Madrid may have failed to beat Manchester United in the Champions League midweek, but their home form this season has been nothing short of fantastic. They have won 9 of 11, with 8 of these victories being by at least two clear goals. Rayo on the other hand have been a poor away side, losing 7 of their 11 matches and are capable of being beaten by large margins. They have lost by at least two goals on 6 different occasions this year, importantly including the reverse fixture between these sides. Overall, there are three clear factors at play here. First is the assumption that Real Madrid aren’t taking the league seriously any more, something which I strongly disagree with. Secondly, the market seems to rate the Manchester United match as heavily influential from a fatigue perspective. Thirdly, Rayo beat Atletico at the weekend, which was unexpected by most, and therefore they’re fancied to do the same again here. I completely disagree with all of these factors and think there’s a major divide between the quality levels of these sides, especially when considering home and away form. The handicap is at least a line to small and therefore I’ll be looking to back it.
James’ Spanish Football Tips:
Real Sociedad v Levante – Half Time Draw (2.25 Bet365)
Valladolid v Atletico Madrid – Valladolid +0.5 (1.91 Pinnacle)
Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano – Real Madrid -2 (1.92 Pinnacle)
*Espanyol v Real Betis – Espanyol win (2.2 Ladbrokes)* – Advised earlier this week