Our last stand before the All-Star break lead to a winning night, and we’ll be looking to do the same against tonight on the back of a winning Football League weekend that kept our pockets comfortable for the time being. It means a 5-2 run across all sports was kick started and we’ll be looking to add to that this evening. Please note the new rating system at the bottom. Don’t mistake ***** for this bet will win, or ** for this bet is 50/50. The star rating does not reflect the likelyhood, but just the type of play it is. Please see the new rating system at the bottom. I felt this was just a fun addition and adds something to our daily tips!
Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets (*****) – (12.30am)
So, we have a ***** tip. Does that mean we will DEFINITELY get a winner? NO! This means it’s our signature underdog play and we’re looking to ride the Bucks as underdogs here to add to our impressive 15-6 underdog record! It’s post All-Star break and sometimes you can see some funny results crop up, but that aside the Bucks are on a straight up dominating 13-0 run in their last 13 meetings with the Nets. Granted this is a very different Nets team to previous years but Deron Williams and the Nets have already been downed twice this season by the Bucks, who have actually won those 13 games by an average of over 15 points. The difference in quality the Nets posses is reflected in their 19-10 home record and the +4.5 spread offered on the Bucks, however with both teams fully fit and ready to go I think the back court of Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings are a match for anyone when at their best and I see no reason why the Bucks can’t cover and perhaps grab a 14th straight win against this side. Chuck in the fact the Bucks are a strong 9-3 against Atlantic opposition and they’ll be looking to take some momentum in tomorrow nights home game – against the Nets.
Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards (**) – (12.00am)
So, some ** action? Does that mean I’m not confident? Hell no. This is our home favorite play and home favorites on a small spread will always be rated as **. However, because the spread is tight and the + underdog of a small spread are usually in good form, it means we approach this one with medium stakes! It’s hard not to take the value on offer here for the Wizards. Two short weeks ago, you’d be looking at roughly Washington -7/-9, or at least that’d be my guess. Instead, we see Washington instilled as -1.5 favorites last night which is now a minimum of -2 at bookies. At several bookies, including matchbook, intense backing has pushed the line all the way up to Washington -3.5 and that’ll probably be sat at -4 come tip off tonight. On one side you have the Raptors on a four game win streak, having knocked off the Knicks, Nuggets and Pacers in that run, and that’s forcing the bookies to approach with caution in this one. They are, however, on the road and up against the best team in the whole of the NBA when it comes to covering spreads. No one is statistically better. The Wizards are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 home games and as always with this side, it’s hard not to take them. Rudy Gay may have lifted the Raptors but John Wall’s effect on the Wizards upon his return was far from short lived and this team just seem to be getting better and better right now and they also concluded an impressive run before the All-Star break having beaten the Knicks, Clippers and and Brooklyn Nets. Tonight should be a showdown in Washington, but Rudy Gay has lots more work to do if he’s going to help Toronto improve on their dreadful 7-19 road record. The Wizards are now 11-14 at home, but it’s important to note 8 of those wins have come in 2013 which has helped them turn around what was a 2-14 home record to start with. They’ll now almost certainly finish the season with a winning home record of at least 27-24. Let’s ride the Washington Wall once again!
Memphis Grizlies @ Detroit Pistons (***) – (12.30am)
You’ll see *** more than any other rating. It’s your regular tip with my normal vote of confidence, and promises profit in the long term. After the Pistons spent weeks wearing my patience thin, making me look silly whilst I insisted they WERE playing good Basketball at home – and then doing the opposite – tonight I’ll be taking their road opponents and although it might be just my luck the Pistons finally show up tonight, it does seem almost to big an ask against a Grizzlies team that is quite simply superior. We know superiority doesn’t mean wins in the NBA, in fact most of the time it probably doesn’t and there’s always some stat against any outcome in this crazy league, but having won the last 6 meetings home and on the road between the sides the Grizzlies look well placed with a small favorites spread. The smallest win over the Pistons in that time was by 6 points and the biggest was by 15, and I think with Gasol fresh after all star weekend we can see some rebound domination from the Grizzlies that can lead to a few additional points here. We all know about the stellar defense that the Grizzlies possess – number one in the NBA in fact – and I think they’ll succeed in slowing down a team that has been held to under 90 points on 9 occasions at home this season. Also, the Pistons D has given up 100 points or more 11 times at home this season. When the Grizzlies score 100 points or more, they have an unbeaten 16-0 win record this season. They beat the Pistons by 14 points and dropped 90 at home, and the very small spread on offer tonight is good value even if they are on the road.
Golden State Warriors @ Utah Jazz (****) – (2.00am)
You’ve seen a few **** bets so far. There are two reasons on the new rating system behind a **** pick. You can read them below. In tonight’s case, it’s because the bookmakers are giving us undeniable value! It DOESN’T mean I’m guaranteeing a win here, the **** rating means that if you bet on this price you’ll be stealing value. Lock the Marathon odds compiler up, and throw away the key, this is criminal. Given that the Utah Jazz are -3.5 favorites and priced at 1.9 on that spread, it seems to make little sense that you’d offer 1.80 for the straight win. In fact it’s not something I’ve come across as the line will always move with the spread, as to avoid offering value such as this. It’s not as if we can 100% guarantee the Jazz will win, as any NBA pick I or anyone else makes is always completely subjective and based on my own way of working, but this is one of the strongest home teams in the whole of the NBA and the Warriors are on a losing skid. We can also see from the stats that the Jazz are looking to revenge a loss to the Warriors (on the road of course) earlier in the year. The Jazz have that as an incentive, and their Conference position to consider. They have an overall record of 30-22 but more importantly they are 20-8 at home and just 1 game behind the Warriors in 7th, who have a 14-15 road record and come here on the back of 5 straight losses. The Jazz however won their last 2 before the break and as always have some nice home court momentum rolling. These odds seem some of the more valuable I’ve seen in the NBA this year.
Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 @ 1.99 with Matchbook
Washington Wizards -2.5 @ 1.90 with SkyBet
Memphis Grizzies -2 @ 1.91 with YouWin
Utah Jazz win @ 1.80 with Marathon
All NBA Handicappers have a rating system, so why shouldn’t we? In US Sports and Handicapping, a rating system or star system doesn’t just represent the likeliness of any given outcome, it just tells you what sort of play it is. Please note, the higher the rating doesn’t guarantee a better win %. The idea of the rating system is to refer to the rating list whenever you see a star by a play. You can read the system and see what type of play I’m calling it. It has little to do with confidence, a higher rating again does not mean a win, but instead is just linked with what type of play I’m calling it (as can be found below)
* – Risky, very rare, probably a free tip.
** - A small home favorite. Usually in a tough game or against a form side, approach with medium stakes.
*** – Your regular tip with a high confidence rating, place with normal stakes.
**** – You’ve seen these ratings before! This means either a season favorite, or awesome value. George will tell you which one!
***** – This is George’s signature. THE UNDERDOG! We all know the NBA underdog record for George. If you see this rating, then it’s a big underdog play.