Odds v LikelihoodComments Off

The use of decimal (or fractional) odds can often distract punters from understanding their perceived chance of success with a bet. Understanding the likelihood of an outcome and comparing this with the given odds easily helps establish where the value lies in any given market. Sometimes they are spot on, where the odds you can get are a true reflection on your perceived chance of success. Other times however, the odds don’t reflect your perceived chance of success – this is where the value is, and when you can capitalise.

The below graph shows how decimal odds look in % chance format. If the odds are correct at EVENS (2.00), there is a 50/50 chance that your bet will win. The value appears when you calculate that there is a greater than 50% chance of this bet winning.

Many punters forget that even at odds of 1.25, there is still a 20% chance that the bet will lose. At 1.75, there is still a 43.86% chance that the bet will lose; so despite being odds on there still lies a large chance of failure. This makes bet selection even more crucial. Those who bet or tip regularly on low odds ‘bankers’ will almost always come unstuck without finding the value. If you bet 5 singles at odds of 1.25, you will theoretically lose once, which will eliminate the profit from the other four winners. However, if you can suggest (through research, team news, stats etc) that odds should be 1.20, then from 6 bets you should win 5, meaning you’ll be up 0.25 from 6 points staked (a modest 4.2% ROI).

The above example goes some way to explain how to calculate value, and hopefully provide a long term profitable ROI. The difficult part comes in the research of team news, form and other variables that when combined can help you establish whether the odds are where they should be. Below is a quick table highlighting the implied % chance of success for odds in and around evens.

The four tipsters here at terrytipster.com to do the research for you. We work hard to find the discrepancies where the odds are greater than our perceived chance of success. Join us for just £9.77 and you’ll be covered until the summer… Why not read some of our previous analysis?

Odds % Chance
1.50 66.7%
1.60 62.5%
1.70 58.8%
1.80 55.6%
1.90 52.6%
2.00 50.0%
2.10 47.6%
2.20 45.5%
2.30 43.5%
2.40 41.7%
2.50 40.0%

About Terry

I have years of experience in the industry, working in both a professional football and betting environment

Shortlink: https://terrytipster.com/?p=4332
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