Last night was a nice way to ease back in to the NBA action with a 3-1 outcome, but as always our targets are to clean up with some clean sweeps! Hopefully tonight’s NBA action will follow another successful night of European Football and we’ll be playing with profits later as we look build more solid profits. As always, refer to the rating system to see what type of bet’s we’re taking on and if you have any particular preference or see a type of bet you want to avoid.. feel free! It’s for your use.
Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Bobcats – (***) – (12.00am)
Tonight I think we catch the Pistons in a very good spot for a number of reasons. The first of those being quite simple in that the Bobcats are the Bobcats, and ‘back to back’ or multiple wins are not a phrase you’d use in conversation when talking about the Bobcats. Last night they blew out Orlando as +5.5 dogs and I must say I did see that one coming, I have the bet slip to prove it, but tonight they’re against a much better Pistons team that simply got outclassed by a better team last night when the Grizzlies blew them out – also something we expected, given our tip win on the Grizzlies. Tonight Detroit has revenge on it’s mind after the Bobcats snuck in through the backdoor with a narrow win in Detroit earlier this year. The Pistons are 23-13 against the bookmakers spread when trying to revenge a loss around the total points that Charlotte beat them by, whilst the Bobcats have failed to cover the last 9 spreads in a row playing the night after winning as an underdog. Big stat. Also we see the Pistons have dropped just 5 of their last 22 games against teams with a win percentage around the Bobcats poor number.
Orlando Magic @ Dallas Mavericks – (***) – (01.35am)
I know the NBA is not as simple as this team beat that team, not this team, and now these two teams play… So, this team wins, right? Wrong. But in this particular situation, you’re probably right. How Orlando are meant to cover +11 – although it is a very large number – against a fresh Mavericks team raring to go after the All-Star Break, in good form and at home… I’m not sure. Throw in the fact that the Magic have already played their first return game and just got beaten comfortable by the Bobcats. They trailed by nearly 30 at one stage too, at home. You also have to consider they must have been pretty motivated at home for one of the most winnable games of the season last night, and look how they flopped. What’s the motivation for a team like the Magic tonight? They know how bad they’ve been, everyone does, and on the road playing a fresh Mavericks whilst you’re on a back to back and after a home blowout is a very unfavorable spot and it’s impossible for me not to take it. Dallas have a recent history of covering in this meeting over the past few seasons and I think this line could be bigger. I don’t know why the bookmakers are only seeing this as a +/-11 contest but it’s not. -14/-15 would be totally fair and the Mavericks are capable of heavy scoring. Throw in the fact that even the Hawks and then the Bobcats and the Trailblazers on the road zoomed past 100 points when playing the Magic, and there’s no reason to believe they’ll keep the Mavericks below 115 whilst perhaps struggling to hit near 100 themselves.
Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks – (***) – (12.00am)
Not only do the Nets score more and allow more at home but we should see the Bucks defense have a better chance of shutting the Nets down, whilst the Nets themselves will almost certainly play a tighter game which the averages tell us, and they also have revenge on their mind. The stats O refer to are Nets road games averaging 187 with several flying WAY below that. We can also see that around the 60% mark of their road games have gone under whilst in the last 18 only 6 have creeped over the total. It’s also quite a common thing to see a low scoring game on a back to back between teams. The total was 187 when it went under between the Bucks & Nets here earlier in the season.
Detroit Pistons -3 @ 1.97 with Matchbook
Dallas Mavericks -11 @ 1.96 with Matchbook
Bucks/Nets Under 196 @ 1.90 with Pinnacle
All NBA Handicappers have a rating system, so why shouldn’t we? In US Sports and Handicapping, a rating system or star system doesn’t just represent the likeliness of any given outcome, it just tells you what sort of play it is. Please note, the higher the rating doesn’t guarantee a better win %. The idea of the rating system is to refer to the rating list whenever you see a star by a play. You can read the system and see what type of play I’m calling it. It has little to do with confidence, a higher rating again does not mean a win, but instead is just linked with what type of play I’m calling it (as can be found below)
* – Risky, very rare, probably a free tip.
** – A small home favorite. Usually in a tough game or against a form side, approach with medium stakes.
*** – Your regular tip with a high confidence rating, place with normal stakes.
**** – You’ve seen these ratings before! This means either a season favorite, or awesome value. George will tell you which one!
***** – This is George’s signature. THE UNDERDOG! We all know the NBA underdog record for George. If you see this rating, then it’s a big underdog play.