What is Value in Betting?Comments Off

I get increasingly frustrated by the continued mis-use of the word value, so much I thought I’d try to help clarify the matter. See, my gripe is that when someone wins a bet or a tip they instantly proclaim “GREAT VALUE”, regardless of the situation. Honestly, the majority of people who use the word value on a regular basis will do nothing to establish whether a bet is or isn’t value at all.

Firstly, lets go over what ‘value’ means (again). Good value can be found when the odds of a given outcome are greater than the perceived chance of success. I know I have mentioned it before, but the word is being used more frequently than ‘like’ or ‘you know’ in a post match interview.

I have two great examples at either end of the spectrum that show how regularly value in betting is misused:

  • The first example comes from a well followed tipster, who misinterpreted the word VALUE with PROFIT. Although value should improve profit long term, that doesn’t mean that a bet of lower odds is worse value. The example in mind was that he stated a tip at 1.25 wasn’t as good value as a bet at evens, but he wanted to play it safe (part of a rolling accumulator). Based on my previous post: Odds v Likelihood, odds of 1.25 represent an 80% chance of success, and an EVENS (2.00) bet has a 50% chance. If he had calculated his risk on both bets, he may have concluded that the beet at 2.00 had only a 40% chance of success, and the bet at 1.25 had a 90% chance. This then shows that the value lies with the bet at lower odds. Implying the bet at evens should actually be 2.50, and the bet at 1.25 should be 1.11.
  • The other example is someone who won a bet at long odds (about 24/1 I think), and instantly screamed “AMAZING VALUE!”. Maybe it was, but I presume it wasn’t. 9/1 (10.00) suggests that you will win 10% of bets at this price, whether it be a single or an accumulator. If this 9/1 winner had just a 5% chance of winning, then it WASN’T a good value bet. Calculating the value is the tough part, which is (hopefully) what we are here for.

What we try to do at terrytipster.com, is find the bets where the % chance is HIGHER than the odds – the true definition of value. By using this approach and providing we get our numbers right, we will ensure long term profits, something we have done with some consistency in the past.

Check our results to see what I’m talking about, value bets will always profit long term. JOIN TODAY for just a £14.77 one off payment and start making long term profits with us and all other #teamterry members

I used Torres as the image to highlight that even though he contributed to the UCL successes of last season, the £50,000,000 paid for him was disproportionate for his contribution. Another good example – his purchase aided the ultimate success/goal of the club, but it doesn’t necessarily make it good value

TIP: DON’T CONFUSE VALUE WITH PROFIT

About Terry

I have years of experience in the industry, working in both a professional football and betting environment

Shortlink: https://terrytipster.com/?p=4639
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