A fairly full card of 10 games tonight in the NBA. We’ve laid off for a while and I suppose we should attempt to make some last week additions to the profit as the playoffs draw closer.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ LA Clippers – (3.35am)
I don’t really see the motivation or need for a blowout. I don’t see why the number should be as big as 12 on the Timberwolves who are easily playing their best Basketball of the season and actually not a bad season. Based on overall season form, you’d expect a line more along the lines of -14/-15, but the Timberwolves are playing by FAR their best Basketball of the season and that’s without several of their big stars. Ricky Rubio, however, is just on fire. The Clippers have been too inconsistent for anyone’s liking ever since their unbeaten run ended and I think having just played that huge game against the Lakers, where they certainly did go all out to blow them away, I don’t necessarily think they’ll be tired as such but it’s definitely a possible let down spot as they approach a back to back to finish the week that involves playing in Memphis against a playoff rival that won IN the Staples Center during their last meeting. This line has already been pushed from +10.5 to +12 so far today and that has to be large groups looking at the overall season and not the form of late. Based on form of late, this line should be within 9 to 10 points and by game time it’ll probably still jump to around +13, so that’s gonna be great value.
New Orleans Hornets @ Sacramento Kings – (2.00am)
Tonight the Kings look to snap the 4 game losing streak against what really is on paper, their easiest chance to do so between now and the end of the season. The Hornets played very hard last night and still came up short in LA despite a huge effort. It’s a huge effort that’ll leave the poor travelers a little road weary as they’ve spent the last day traveling to and settling in Sacramento. Despite playing the Lakers to what was eventually an 8 point game that reach 200 points, I don’t know if the Hornets can bring that same sort of effort in a totally different enviroment this evening. Vasquez went down with that re-occuring ankle injury late in the game last night and although he’s not reported as out, there’s no reason at all to risk any player injury at this stage of the season if you’re the Hornets. It’s likely it was just a fall and he’ll play, but if he’s anything less than 100% he won’t be risked too much and that’d be a help too. This is a series the home side has straight up dominated for years and they’re both poor travelers. New Orleans have won just 3 of their last 18 visits and the Kings can take some heart from their performance in a 2 point home loss to the Grizzlies last time out.
Atlanta Hawks @ Philadelphia 76ers – (11.00pm)
The 76rs went in to Atlanta and won by 11 points less than a week ago and in the circumstances, with no real concerns or distractions going toward the end of the season, that won’t be forgotten. The Hawks are going to the playoffs and will be focused on putting some wins together and getting healthy between now and then. The 76ers are ready for the off season and just looking to give their fans some shows if they can, but I think the Hawks side will be motivated tonight (should they be fully fit). Please note, we’re only taking this bet if the team news I mention at the bottom applies. It’s a back to back spot for the 76ers and their 4th game in 6 days which is clearly a rough scheduling spot for any team. With the no motivation factor too, it’d be pretty easy and pretty forgivable to just ease off in this spot. Also, the Hawks can still reach a higher seeding in the playoffs. They’re currently at #6 and they’ll be looking to make the first round of games as easy as they possibly can by grabbing a higher seed, starting tonight. Over the last 6 road games the Hawks have covered 5 times and with all the factors including revenge, I’m happy to take them on an under inflated number forced by Philly’s recent home run where they’ve covered several consecutive games.
Minnesota Timberwolves +12 @ 1.99 with Matchbook
Sacramento Kings -6 @ 2.00 with Matchbook
**Atlanta Hawks -3 @ 1.94 with Matchbook
*Terry will account for 1% commission in the results, so any bookies is fine for the Atlanta bet. Sacramento are worth taking at Matchbook as even with the tiny 1% commission you’re getting a MUCH bigger price than your generic 1.9 at bookies. Same goes for the Wolves.
**This bet ONLY goes ahead should any 2 of: Smith, Korver & Horford start the game.