Just a quick post from me today regarding how careful you need to be when listening to stats from people professing to be successful when it comes to betting and/or providing tips. There are several ways that are often used to mislead people. We’ve had a good month in July, but have 2+ years of records to show we are human and go through occasional tough patches too. Still, we have had 10 profitable months from the last 13, and at the time of writing we’ve made £2235.60 since 1st July 2012. That’s a 6.81% ROI including our bad months… Bear in mind that trading houses are perfectly happy with 2-3% Return on Investment over time and you can see we’ve had some success. Anyway – here are a few things to look out for:
Win or Loss Percentages
Commonly used as a way to entice customers is win percentage. It’s a cool stat to have, but unless used in context with other information it’s pretty useless. As an example, a tipster could provide 100 tips at odds of 1.10. They boast a win rate of 88% – which sounds impressive. However, at those odds, an 88% win rate would results in a loss of -3.2 units. Take our July results and you’ll see we won 33/55 bets (60%). This sounds far less impressive as a win percentage, but with average odds of 2.10, a win % of 51% would likely yield a profit – which is why our July ROI was almost 30% with just a 60% win rate.
OK, we use profit when we talk about success, but only when it is backed up with ROI stats too… We use level stakes and most people know that they are £20 per bet. However, some tipsters enjoy using 100, 200, 500 point stakes, knowing that a win at 500 points will allow them to promote profit of “250 Points” even if the tip they advise was just a 1/2 (1.50) shot. Again, similarly to the win/loss percentages, ask a tipster for their ROI and they should be able to provide it – this will give you the best picture of their profitability.
This is the biggest scam going that I’ve seen so far. You probably know who does it, it’s such a sneaky way to claim bigger profits and avoid any losses. If we did this, we’d have £20k profit in the last year alone I’m sure, but it’s completely dishonest. How it works, is a tipster provides an accumulator with 5+ teams in it, but ranks them in order of preference (i.e. bankers first). They then provide the odds for adding each subsequent team in the list. Obviously, the more teams added the higher the odds. Check the below example and you’ll see what I mean. It looks fine on paper, fun even… However, they will claim a winner depending on how many won. If Man United and Spurs win, but AC Milan lost, they will claim a 1.95 winner. If Man Uts, Spurs, AC and Barca won, they would claim a winner at 5.25. Imagine if bookies allowed accumulators to be done in such a way! If you want me to explain this any further, feel free to get in touch via email, twitter or member chat…
Odds Builder Acca:
Man United Win (1.30)
+ Spurs Win (1.95)
+ AC Milan Win (3.50)
+ Barcelona Win (5.25)
+ Bayern Munich Win (8.00)
+ Porto Win (15.00)
Just ask for ROI – it’s the only accurate measure as it combines amount staked with overall returns – this way, you know what you’re getting involved with