Two tips this evening looking to build on the profit made in midweek…
Cambuur v FC Twente (7pm)
With obvious attacking threat and prowess, Twente will come to this game expecting a convincing victory. They have shown they can score goals with 21 in their opening 8 fixtures. They have scored 2,3,4,5 & 6 goals in games so far. The fact they have scored 3+ goals on a few occasions shows their mentality of not letting up of sitting on a lead – this is a great attribute when using Asian Handicap markets.
Twentes impressive 3-0 win at Heracles and 5-0 win at home to Groningen show they are defensively pretty strong too. They conceded 2 at PSV (2-2 draw), but have conceded only twice on the road; scoring 7. Cambuur have struggled in front of goal, managing just three in their last 5 Eredivisie fixtures. They will struggle to keep out Twente who manage around 20 shots a GAME, whereas Cambuur manage less than half of that (around 8/game). Twente will not change their style of play either – with a key focus on retaining possession and patience. They have some real quality in the attacking third and are a couple of slick passes from a clear cut chance as soon as they are in the final third. Expect the home side to sit back and try to frustrate the visitors, but ultimately expect the away side to score a few. My stats model favours 2-0 and 3-0 to the away side, and I think this is pretty realistic. The Asian line gives us cover should they win
Hannover v Hertha BSC (7:30pm)
Hannover have now lost just once in 14 Bundesliga fixtures, yet come in to this fixture odds against for all three points. They host a Hertha side without a win or clean sheet on the road this season.
The home side will be without Mame Biram Diouf who has been in good form and could maybe explain the price a little. However, with 4 wins against the ‘weaker’ sides in the league and 3 defeats to teams in the top few (Bayern, Leverkusen and ‘Gladbach) it looks very much as if Hannover could end up competing for ‘best of the rest’ this season with the likes of Schalke… Away at Leverkusen Diouf didn’t start, with Ya Konan and Sobiech starting up front. This will likely be the same pairing this evening – as it was in their last home Bundesliga fixture – a 2-1 win over the surprising Augsburg.
Hertha have started as well as they would’ve hoped, and in fact couldn’t have started better with their 6-1 demolition of a misfiring Stuttgart. They will try and stifle the home side and frustrate them. Hertha will concede possession and look to counter when they can, but they lach the quality to do this successfully enough in my opinion. Hannover create a lot and I think it is a risky tactic to allow them to come at you – they will score. If the home side score first then the visitors will need to attack more and this will create space and more opportunities for the home side. An early home goal could make this very one sided. The risk is that Hannover will become frustrated and try to force the game too soon.
Cambuur v Twente – Twente -1.00 (2.16 – Pinnacle)
Hannover v Hertha – Hannover Win (2.39 – Pinnacle)