Last night was great, with 4/5 winners. Just a big shame that my favourite bet of the 5 LOST! Very disappointing after they had taken the lead at home, but anyway, I have two bets today, and I am favouring home sides.
Heerenveen v RKC Waalwijk (7pm)
When you have two sides who are underperforming, or are lacking any sort of form such as these two it can be tough to know which way it will go. Heerenveen lost their last home game 3-2 to a resurgent Vitesse side after being 2-0 up with under 40 minutes remaining. They let it slip when they shouldn’t have. At home, they have been scoring for fun. With an impressive 17 goals from 6 games, they don’t often get boring games here. With 32 goals in total from the 6 games (conceded a shocking 15), overs is understandably short again this evening (1.36 in some places!!).
Finbogasson is the league’s top scorer and causes problems for the stronger sides in the league, so could wreak havoc tonight as they host a side who have conceded an average of 2/game this season. They have also only managed 5 away goals this season, so the home side have an opportunity to keep a clean sheet, although they may well concede. They love an early goal at home, and have scored before HT in 4/5 games, scoring 6 first half goals in those 4 games. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them level the -1.00 Asian Handicap in the first half, and go on to cover it in the second. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see 2+ goals in the first 45 minutes.
Hannover v Braunschweig (7:30pm)
Braunschweig have had a mini resurgence of late, ever since we opposed them at Wolfsburg. I say resurgence, they have won 2 of their last 4 games, but are still bottom with just 7 points from their first 11 games, and have looked poor for the majority – other than when they ride their luck and grab a goal against the run of play.
Hannover have one poine from their last 5 games, but that doesn’t tell you the whole story. They have won 4/6 at home, losing only to the impressive Hoffenheim – and only then after they were down to ten men after Diouf was red carded for a dive (2nd Yellow) after 12 minutes. It wasa freak game that can’t really be used in any analysis in my opinion. Away from home they have lost 5/5, but have played Bayern, Dortmund and Leverkusen and Gladbach, all games they were big underdogs.
Today they welcome back Diouf, who I expect to start with Ya Konan out and Sobeich unlikely to be involved. I like the supporting trio of Prib/Huszti/Stindl and think that going forward they will be able to break down the defensive minded Braunschweig side. Defensively they are still without Felipe, and Schulz is a doubt, but they have enough cover in Sane and Avevor if needs be. Braunschweig won’t create much tonight, but I think the key is conviction from a Hannover side who have managed 12 goals in 6 at home this season. Barring their shock 2-0 win at Wolfsburg, Braunschweig have conceded 12 goals in their other 4 away games this season. I wouldn’t touch the goal market when Braunschweig are involved as they could let down the overs, so instead I am favouring the home side, with profit on 3 points.
Heerenveen -1.00 (2.05 – Pinnacle)
Hannover -0.75 (1.87 – Ladbrokes)