I have one tip that I am adding for today, thanks to a nice drift in favour of my selection. This makes it five tips in total for the weekend.
Ajax v Heracles (7:45pm)
This market has moved quite a bit over the past week, and I have been monitoring it pretty closely. Luckily, it has opened up some value for us too. 11 days ago, bet365 had this line priced at 1.63, but Bet Victor have added the line today and it is priced at 1.84, which screams value.
Ajax will be without two of their main men – de Jong (hamstring) and Sigthorsson (ankle) after both returned from international duty with injuries. They are both likely to miss the UCL fixture against Barcelona in midweek. However, their opposition are poor and Ajax have enough in their reserves to dominate this fixture. Fisher, Moisander and Poulsen were on the bench in the 3-0 win at NEC, and all could return to the starting XI today. These are more than able replacements and will ensure they will not need to change their controlling style of play.
Heracles lost 3-0 at home to Groningen last time out, and will be up against it again today. They will get much less of the ball than usual and will need to make the most of any periods in the game where they get on top (of which I expect to be few and far between). Conceding early will be their main concern, so I expect them to sit back initially and bide their time. Ajax have enough creativity to break them down during this time, so don’t be surprised to see an early goal for the home side. Defensively Ajax have been a bit more solid of late (conceding 2 in 5), and in the league at home they have only shipped 3 goals in their 7 games at the Amsterdam Arena.
Ajax have a couple missing, but Heracles will be missing players too, so are far from full strength (te Wierik and Koenders will be missed in particular).
Ajax v Heracles – Ajax -1.50 (1.84 – Bet Victor)