Last night’s 3-3 brought a small loss of roughly 0.5 units (I think). With our current run, I actually don’t mind losing. If betting was as easy as winning all the time I’d serve no purpose sat here writing this, so it’s good to look at your losses and see what went wrong sometimes. In the case of last night, we lost a -3.5 as Portland won by 3, and an Overs bet by a score after a late drought in the game. In this case it was just one of those things that happens. Even though I hold my hands up for a poor bet in the Cavs @ New Orleans game, the Pelicans still missed some free throws in the last couple minutes that could have meant a 6 point win as opposed to the damaging 4, so I’m actually really pleased with how last night went going in to a busy Saturday. Best of luck everyone.
New York Knicks @ Washington Wizards – (12.00am)
The Wizards definitely have a better squad than the Knicks right now, and I’m unsure how good they really are at home. They’ve played very few games at home so far but we have seen inconsistency, but that’s always been the Wizards on the road. The Knicks have demonstrated their weaknesses on the road and the motivation still isn’t quite right. The Knicks have covered just 3 of 11 spreads so far this season and I think the lines are showing them a lot of respect. There’s definitely always the possibility of a team with these names COULD turn it around, but I don’t think it’s gonna happen with this team, and at least not here.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets – (1.00am)
We really like this Minnesota team, and not just for the wins they’re providing us. They’re a solid unit who are capable of causing any team problems. Last night’s romp over the Nets allowed for plenty of rest, but they’re still actually playing game number 4 in 5 days and either way that is hard. Houston will look to take advantage of that because they’re well rested after two days off and they’re definitely motivated to bounce back at home after their harsh late loss to the Mavs. The Rockets are 5-2 at home whilst the T’Wolves are 2-4. I think as much as anything this is just a situational spot you like to bet on, because the difference in schedule really can make for some tired efforts in the fourth quarter, and one of the better NBA defences in the Bulls were made to look like nothing out of tiredness in their back to back last night, scoring just 12 in the third and letting Portland in for 35 to win after they were 22 points down.
Charlotte Bobcats @ Milwaukee Bucks – (1.30am)
This is a pretty low total and whilst you could easily apply the time old method of backing the under of the lowest total line on the card when there’s 4 games or more (sounds stupid, but highly successful) that system is currently on a winning run and it’s due a loss. These two are set up to produce a low total but whenever they meet it seems to go over. 5 of the last 7 meetings have gone over. Whilst Milwaukee are giving up around 100 points per game, the Bobcats defence is actually fairly good, but both teams played tough games last night and they’ll be a little more tired on defence. It won’t be the quickest game given the pace the Bobcats play at, but hopefully tiredness can add to the mistakes in the paint and the return of Al Jefferson can boost the Bobcats percentage.
Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets – (2.30am)
I just like the OVER when two big teams meet. There’s always this expectancy on big lines between high scoring team that the line can be set high and people take the under, but the amount of points teams like this can combine for on the right occasion can make a complete mockery of even the highest lines. I do think this one will be a little closer to the line when it drops over or under, but both team are going to force themselves in to the hundreds I feel. The Mavs are playing their 3rd game in 4 days, so that should help Denver but won’t affect Dallas’ scoring. 4 of the last 7 have gone over but the trend that interests me is that the OVER is 5-0 when Denver are on 1 day of rest and playing a team with a more congested schedule. The averages suggest we should expect no less than 212 points, given that Dallas are averaging over 107 and Denver over 103. Defence is far more likely to go out the window than offence when these type of teams meet and both will be very happy to play a fast pace which’ll give them both more possessions.
Washington Wizards -1.5 @ 1.87 with Pinnacle
Houston Rockets -6.5 @ 1.90 with Pinnacle
Bucks/Bobcats: Over 182 @ 1.80 with Pinnacle
Dallas/Denver: Over 213 @ 1.88 with Pinnacle