It’s time to get back to winnings ways! Please note there will be no NBA tomorrow and I’ll be back on Wednesday.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Indiana Pacers – (12.00am)
I took a new and interesting approach as part of my research today. Not looking just at team trends, I looked at our trends. I liked this bet but it was a 50/50 bet or no bet for me, but upon realizing we’re 0/3 when backing the T’Wolves away and comfortably in profit when backing the Pacers at home, let’s take it. For this time they have a shot of going 8-0 at home to start a season for the first time ever. They’re holding teams a mile below 40% shooting on this court and they’ve given up just below 83ppg, which is dominant. The T’Wolves are on an 0-4 run and they’re not playing very good defence, giving up a truck load of points in that run. We do like Minnesota, but it’s a tough run of games for them after we landed Houston -6 a few days ago, and I think this one could get ugly.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons – (12.30am)
The Bucks have lost 8 straight and there’s no denying that is bad. The Pistons defence is no better at all, giving up an average of above 100 points per game. 100 is not a number the Pistons are pushing too regularly on offence either, so this is a match-up between two teams I don’t really like. That said, the Bucks are averaging 99.2 points against per game this season and they’re capable of playing some decent defence. These two teams have split their last 8 meetings 4-4, whilst the Bucks are 5-3 ATS against the Pistons in those meetings. Giving the Pistons 7.5 points seems too much to me. In games we’ve bet on involving the Bucks, they’ve covered the spread in 6/7 road games, so let’s see what they do here.
Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks – (1.30am)
I’m not particularly pleased we lost our total bet when these teams met two days, so I’m re-visiting this match-up as they’ll make up for it tonight. With a huge effort from each team to end the second, the in-play total had risen as high as odds on Over 231.5, so to only get a shade above 200 after a dismal second half is disappointing. The Mavs went minute after minute without scoring, and look suddenly slow, and I wonder if the altitude affected them. You always run the risk of that in Denver. Back at home, expect move for the Mavs who will want revenge. They average just over 111ppg at home and I’m not sure the Nuggets will change that trend. I think we’ll see them cover tonight, and chuck on an extra 10 for good measure to appease our loss the other night!
Indiana Pacers -6.5 @ 2.03 with Matchbook
Milwaukee Bucks +7.5 @ 1.94 with Matchbook
Nuggets/Mavs: Over 212 @ 1.87 with Pinnacle