A busy day as usual on a Saturday, but Sunday looks very good from a tips perspective too. Anyway, with just three losers in my last 9 Saturday bets, I’m hopeful of another set of positive results today.
Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen (2:30pm)
Last weekend I watched Bremen host Mainz as I had backed them DNB (+0.00). They lost 3-2 but that scoreline flattered them. They were deservedly 3-0 down (AT HOME) to a mediocre Mainz side before they managed two lase consolation goals.
I have been impressed with Hoffenheim this season so far, especially going forward. When in full flow they look very threatening and have scored plenty of goals already. They’ve lost their last 3 home games, and won just one in their last 8. However, they way these two sides line up against eachother gives me great confidence they can get three points. In the last 3 home games, they have face Bayern Leverkusen and Hertha – all tough sides – and they competed in all three fixtures. They also drew 3-3 with Schalke, and I think they will get enough chances today to get at least 2 goals – which I expect to be enough against a Bremen side that haven’t offered much.
Bayern Munich v Braunschweiger (2:30pm)
Here we have top versus bottom in a game that should only go one way. Bayern have won their last 18 home games since their defeat to Arsenal in the Champions League, and they have netted an impressive 15 in their last 4 at home. This makes for very nervous reading for the away side, who have one away win to their name this season. They were comfortably beaten by both Hamburg and Monchengladbach (4-0 and 4-1), and another similar scoreline looks very likely here.
The hosts will be without Lahm, Schweinsteiger and Ribery, but amazingly this will hardly weaken the side at all. In fact, I think they are just as likely to bag a few goals today without them. Gotze should hopefully start, and as I said in midweek, this will bode well for them going forward. Thiago will replace Lahm in midfield and the rest could remain pretty similar.
Braunschweig have managed just 8 goals this season, and a home clean sheet seems very likely. They have a few injury concerns too, including first choice left back Reichel and captain Kruppke… ALl in all, despite -2.75 seeming like a large number, I expect Bayern have enough to cover -3.50.
Heracles v Utrecht (7:45pm)
The late kick off in Holland sees Utrecht visit Heracles. This bet looks dodgy if you look at the stats alone, but if you’ve seen these two sides play much this season then hopefully you agree with my selection.
Groningen were the last side to play here, running away 3-0 winners. with 2 wins from their last 8 Eredivisie matches, Heracles have it all to do to get three points here. Utrecht are yet to win on the road, losing their last 4 away games and conceding three in each of their last 3. Away defeats to Feyenoord, Vitesse and Ajax were expected though – so this is why the stats don’t mean everything. They have also travelled to Twente and Groningen (losing both). That is 5 away defeats to arguably the 5 strongest sides in the league (4 are currently in the top 5). Bear this mind and you might begin to think that Utrecht +0.50 might be a good idea!
Heracles have lost ‘to nil’ in 4 of their last 8 games, and whilst I think an away win isn’t certain (hence the pick), I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see that become 5/9. They have injury concerns up front, but the Utrecht midfield is strong and should be able to both create chances and protect their back line
Hoffenheim v Bremen – Hoffenheim -1.00 (2.35 – Bet Victor)
Bayern v Braunschweig – Bayern -2.75 (1.88 – Bet Victor/Bet365)
Heracles v Utrecht – Utrecht +0.50 (2.00 – Bet365)