Here are today’s NBA picks.
San Antonio Spurs @ LA Clippers
First up, we have the winning Spurs against the winning Clippers. There’s probably little doubt that the Spurs are the better team and they have much more chance of going deep in to the playoffs. However, they’ve had a soft enough schedule so far to suggest they may struggle more against a winning side like the Clippers, who tend to play up against other successful sides. Clippers are 7-3 in their last 10 as a home underdog, whilst the Spurs are 0-4 ATS against teams with a .600 (60%) winning record. LA are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with a team with a winning record above .600 (60%), whilst finally the underdog is on a 5-0 winning ATS run in this game.
Utah Jazz @ Miami Heat
No doubt there’s some hesitancy in betting against the Heat for a lot of you, but despite their consistent win percentage, it’s clear this team has little interest in blowing anyone out a lot of the time. It’s often said LeBron and co look a little bored as they wait for the playoffs, and it’s true. Teams always raise their game against this elite Heat side, whilst the Heat themselves often preserve a lot for the bigger games. I think they’ll be looking ahead to their next game against the Indiana Pacers, who beat the Heat recently. Miami are just 3-13 ATS against teams winning less than 40% of their road games, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games as a 11 or more point favourite and although they’re 10-2 at home, they’ve only covered the spread in 4 of those 12 games. Finally, this game fits a system where we take a team that lost their last game by 15 or more (like Utah did) and back them in their next game if they are underdogs of 10 or more points. This system has a 69% success rate on 54 games.
Orlando Magic @ Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are averaging 79ppg over their last 5 games, whilst the Magic are averaging just 92ppg on the road – that combines for just 171 points IF the Magic actually make it as high as their average. Both defences are actually pretty good, with the Bulls seeing 4 of their last 5 at home go Under and Orlando seeing the Under go 4-0 in their recent road games. The Under is also 4-0 in Orlando games on the back of a loss, and 4-0 in games where they are an underdog. This also fits the age old basic system of betting the Under on the lowest total of the night if there are at least 4 games. It sounds stupid, but that system has been making money for over a decade.
Detroit Pistons @ Indiana Pacers
I don’t like a big spread like this too often. We lost one last night, but I tend to pick my spots. I’ve only taken a spread of -10 or higher 21 times in the past 2 years, but it’s produced a winning 14-7 outcome. The Pistons are one of the worst in the NBA when it comes to big spreads, covering just 3-16 ATS in the last 19 when they were underdogs of 10 or more. Indiana is a killer 11-0 at home, and they’re also 11-0 ATS on the back of an ATS loss. The opening line on this game was -10, and the Pacers are 10-1 ATS at home as favourites of 5-10.5 points. It’s a big number, but if anyone can get blown out, it’s Detroit.
LA Clippers +3 @ 1.92 with Pinnacle
Utah Jazz +12 @ 1.97 with Pinnacle
Magic/Bulls: Under 185 @ 1.92 with Pinnacle
Indiana Pacers -11 @ 1.94 with Pinnacle