Friday Football Tips – 20/12Comments Off

After nothing in midweek, I am back and looking to repeat the results from last weekend (+£52.50 from 12 picks). There are two tips tonight…

RKC Waalwijk v Twente (7pm)

This game is a great chance for Twente to apply some pressure at the top of the table before the winter break. Superior goal difference means they will go top with three points this evening, meaning Ajax and Vitesse will have to do something if they want to lead the table going in to the break.

The home form of RKC has been sketchy so far this campaign, winning three and losing four from 8 games so far. They are now without first choice ‘keeper Jan Seda who is out injured. Defensively they have been far from impressive, conceding twice against the league’s lowest scorers (Cambuur) in their last home tie. From an attacking perspective, they will be missing Romeo Castelen (knee) as well as long term absentees Rommedahl and Lieder. Ex Forest midfielder Evander Sno is a doubt although could be available after missing the last game through injury. All in all, the hosts are weakened quite substantially. Can you guess which way I am going yet?

Twente have pulled their finger out of late. Four wins on the bounce and only one defeat in their last 13 Eredivisie fixtures. They will be confident of a win here, but the line is a bit tight (high if anything), meaning we would need to go to -1.50 Asian Handicap to get any backable price. However, consider the fact that they haven’t won by 2+ in 5 consecutive away games and the value might not be on Asian Handicap, but on the goal line instead. The maths is quite simple -

  • Waalwijk are missing players throughout their spine and don’t score much against the top sides in the league.
  • Twente have scored more than 2  in just 2 of their last 12 away games.
  • There have been 4+ goals in just 2 of Twente’s last 11 away league ties.
  • Although Head to Head isn’t always a good variable to use, the last 4 games between these to sides have seen a TOTAL of 2 (TWO) goals.

Eintracht Frankfurt v Augsburg (7:30pm)

Frankfurt come in to this game after a shock 1-0 victory at second places Bayer Leverkusen. If you saw this game, you’ll know they worked hard and played aggressively. They didn’t allow Leverkusen to play their normal game, this worked and despite being dominated for the majority of the game, they got a goal and held out. Today, in front of their own crowd they have a different task at hand. They host Augsburg who are sitting pretty in 8th place despite being written off from the early stages of the season.

Augsburg have competed against the lower team consistently this season. From their 7 defeats this season, 5 have been from sides inside the top 6. From the remaining 11 games, they’ve lost just twice. That’s an impressive and consistent record. This has been good for us this season. I have bet on 6 Augsburg games this season, winning 4, with one push and one loser. AS long as they stay under rated, I’m happy to back them on a positive handicap. They will create chances today and I would be surprised if they didn’t score (they have scored in 75% of games this season).

Frankfurt are without a home win this season, and whilst they will be buoyed by their win at Leverkusen, I think they will have to wait a little longer for a home victory.

Terry’s Tips

Waalwijk v Twente – Under 3.00 Goals (1.96 – Pinnacle)

Frankfurt v Augsburg – Augsburg +0.25 (1.88 – Bet365)

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