Apologies. A few things have come up over the past few days that have affected the quality of the service. You know what to expect from me by now. I always do my best to provide you with thorough reasoning and winning bets! I do think looking back at a few bets and results that it has perhaps provided an un-welcome distraction and affected performance aswell, but bare with me. But hey, let’s not make excuses! Tonight we shall win again!
Sacramento Kings @ Orlando Magic
Sacramento are not in a very nice spot here. They really put in a huge effort in Miami last night and kept it a contest for 3 and a bit quarters, but they did in the 4th. In the end it was a comfortable double digit loss, and the Kings are just 1-6 ATS on the back of their last 7 double digit losses. This will be Sacramento’s 4th game in 5 day, and that’s tough for any team, but they’re just 2-11 ATS when playing their 5th game of the week. Orlando are 4-0 ATS on the back of an ATS loss and despite their poor record at covering this number at home, this is a unique situation.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trailblazers
This one is a no brainer for me until it begins to consistently start’s to lose. The Over is 43-19 in Portland’s last 62 overall. It’s 7-1 on 2 days rest and 23-8 in home games and 13-3 after scoring 100+ in their last game. Note it’s also 4-0 Over when giving up 100+ points. For New Orleans, they’ll have little chance but to play the Blazers game, but the return of Anthony Davis will help them compete. The Over is 4-0 on 2 days rest for this Pelicans team and also 5-1 in their last 6 against a team with a winning record. The result in Minnesota was not good enough for Portland and they’ll be ruthless tonight.
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns
I do quite like the Suns to sneak another cover here. I think the line could definitely be bigger, but after they let me down personally by 1 on a total bet last night, I’m not sure if 2 in a row will go Under for this team. Dallas are 5-1 over in their last 6 whilst the Suns are 8-3 Over. The Over is 7-1 against teams with a losing road record (like Dallas) whilst for Dallas they’ve gone Over 5-1 when they’re an underdog in the range of 0.5-5 (like tonight). Based on season averages alone these teams combine to over 205 points, and I don ‘t see either side with a defence really good enough to slow the other side down. These teams are averaging 18 3 point field goals between them per game.
Utah Jazz @ Charlotte Bobcats
I took the Jazz in some recent wins, and I also took them in their last two blowout losses to Miami and Atlanta. Last night confirmed they really are struggling a little bit again. They’ve shown vast improvements and certainly enough to trust them on big spreads with wins in Denver and Sacramento, but let’s see what they do with less motivation against a solid defensive team, a small spread and the second game of a back to back. Charlotte outscored Detroit 41-17 last night in the 4th just to prove how good they are right now and although Detroit are kings of the 4th quarter bottle job, it’s usually the scoring that goes south.. They don’t tend to give up 41 points like they did. Jazz are 3-7 ATS overall and also 0-7 ATS against a team that allowed 100 or more in their previous game. Given that the Bobcats are actually a pretty good defensive unit, they’ll want to get back to basics tonight.
Orlando Magic -3 @ 1.91 with Pinnacle
Pelicans/Trailblazers: Over 213 @ 1.92 with Pinnacle
Mavericks/Suns: Over 208.5 @ 1.92 with Pinnacle
Charlotte Bobcats -4 @ 1.92 with Pinnacle