Allsvenskan Correct Score Model


Allsvenskan Correct Score Model

The statistical model I have built for the Swedish top flight is currently up 11.14 units from 109 picks this season. Last weekend was poor (-4.2 units), but the ROI still stands at 9.3%. I thought I'd try and show some other things it can do by showing the correct score odds it generates (this also shows how the CS market rarely offers good value)

Gefle v Halmstad: 1-0/0-1

Model really can't decide here, pricing 1-0 either way exactly to the same (8.64).

Kalmar v Malmo: 1:2

Model slightly favours Malmo here, pricing a 2-1 win at 9.52. It likes over 2.5 goals too, suggesting that anything above 1.57 would be good value

Falkenberg v AIK: 1-1

Away side favoured slightly, with the model favouring 1-1 (10.61) only slightly more that 1-0 and 2-1 away wins

Goteborg v Mjallby: 1-0

Model doesn't like goals here, favouring 1-0 home win (9.79) and a 1-1 draw (10.05)

Atvidaberg v Brommapojkarna: 1-0

Unders looks good here, 1-0 priced at 8.20 - and under 2.50 showing value above 1.80

Norrkoping v Elfsborg: 1-1

1-1 is priced at 9.50 according to the model and is the most liekly here. 

Orebro v Helsinborg: 1-2

Model favours 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 wins for the away side here. Helsinborg 2-1 is at 9.69

Djurgarden v Hacken: 1-1

Model likes unders here (under 2.5 at 1.93 or higher), and 1-1 seesm the most liekly score (8.07)

Not expecting these to come in by any means, but it could maybe help guide your selections this week. I have published 3 Allsvenskan football tips on the site for members (and one from the Superettan)

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