After a decent few weeks, I've been experimenting in a few smaller leagues using similar methods to those I've been using in the bigger European competitions. Using poisson distribution and some supremacy stats, I've managed to transfer my model to the Swedish Allsvenskan, and 9 games in to the season it has provided some decent returns.
On the 1x2 (home/draw/away) market, It has provided a return of 3.77 units (5.2% ROI). Most shrewd punters will know that the 1x2 market is tough to crack because the bookie's margins are high, and you're often limited to short favourites or rank outsiders.
On the Asian Handicap market, the model has returned exactly 14.00 units in profit from teh first 9 rounds - a healthy 20.6% ROI. This sounds high, and it is, and ultimately I would expect this to level out over the course of the season. It's tough to have a 20% ROI, long term anything above 6-7% is very good.
These strong results have made me think that we can turn a nice profit during the course of this Swedish season. To give you a sneak preview, I've included suggested bets for the next week or so (gameweek 10):
(LOSE) Bromm v Mjallby HOME -0.50 @ 2.10
(WIN) Norrkoping v Falkenberg AWAY 1.00 @ 1.92
(LOSE) AIK v Elfsborg AWAY 0.25 @ 2.04
(WIN) Orebro v Gefle AWAY 0.75 @ 1.85
(LOSE) Halmstad v Bromm AWAY 0.50 @ 1.88
(LOSE) Hacken v Kalmar AWAY 0.50 @ 2.07
Helsinborg v Atvidaberg HOME -0.75 @ 2.17
Djurgarden v IFK Goteborg HOME 0.00 @ 1.80
Lets see how they get on, and see if the league can bring teamterry members a decent profit over the coming months.