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Pre Season Promo!

The new domestic football season is almost upon us, and we're celebrating by offering the remainder of 2014 for just £30! Thats equates to a huge saving of over 50% compared with the regular monthly price. Simply click HERE to take advantage of this pre season promotional offer. 

Usually £15/month, sign up today and you can get over FIVE FULL MONTHS (monthly cost of £75) of premium access to all analysis and picks, it works out at LESS THAN £6/MONTH!

The offer will expire on 16th August at 12:45 BST - the officla start of the Premier League as Manchster United host Swansea City, with both sides looking to improve on their 2013-14 Premier League Campaign. Van Gaal is now in charge at United, and many of us are expecting great things.

 

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Home of the Cash-Out??

I've already spoken about the topic of 'Cash Outs' offered by the bookmakers, and how the option is there in an attempt to increase their profits, despite marketing the feature as one that would benefit the customer. 

There has now been another debacle with this temperamental feature on Betfair that occured last night and had around 400 people on their live chat support to try and find out what was going on! I have since spoken to several people since, on top of searching twitter to find a large number of disgruntled Betfair customers.

The game in question was the Premier League tie at the Emirates between Arsenal and Swansea. Understandably, many people had Arsenal to win in their bets, so after two second half goals in 60 seconds from Podolski and Giroud turned the game on its head after Bony's early header, many opted to cash out and take any profit they had earned so far. With Everton and Man City winning the other games 2-0 at the time (both favourites), a lot of people were set to profit with the Gunners 2-1 up for the final 15 minutes. This caused a lot of people to take to twitter in search of answers, and thus far to no avail. 

Betfair seem to be trying to sort something out, but at the minute are staying pretty tight lipped. The one thing is for sure is that they won't be paying out the values that people had tried to cash out whilst being unable to. It seems as though they are likely to try to refund the stakes - with some rumouring them to be refunded as a FREE BET... Not sure yet if these are rumours, but I hope not. 

I have spoken with a couple of people who had tried to cash out after Arsenal went 2-1 up but were unable to. So many were in the same situation that I'm sure that the punters were collectively down £1,000s as a result. Mick Swift tried to let Betfair know when he was trying to cashout, and asks if this request will be honoured - I doubt it will, unfortunately. 

Nath Moss summed up how everyone was feeling about the service provided by Betfair. Perhaps if Betfair spent more money on a reliable product instead of advertising it, they would have a successful service, fewer complaints, and thousands of happy customers that would effectively advertise if for FREE by suggesting to their friends and colleagues. Instead, they get batch of bad publicity followed by batch of bad publicity and wonder why their company appears to be going down the proverbial swanny.

If you want to cash out - look at using somewhere else or the Betfair exchange to limit liability (even if it is a little more effort), why:

  1.  It is much more profitable as Betfair take a cut when using the cashout option - no value, lower profits
  2. Protect yourself from the sporadic availability of the cashout feature.

Let me know what you think on Twitter, do you agree?

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Cash Out? A feature for the Bookmaker

Several bookmakers now offer and heavily promote their 'cash-out' feature on TV and online, and big sports accounts often open up the debate when followers send in their 'cash-out dilemmas'.... Should someone cash out after winning 8 of their 9 games in an accumulator or should they take the risk and see if the final team can win too. The answer is simple, but is becoming less and less clear due - NO, you should NEVER use the cashout option.

The Situation

Using the example in the image above, you can see that this guy has done a £500 five fold. The first four bets have won, leaving him with Arsenal to win tonight at Aston Villa - at a price of 1.57. Betfair have been generous and said "you know what, we'll give you £2674.44 and settle the bet right now". Wow, the bookmaker is willing to pay out on his bet before he won!

Also, as anyone who bets on sports will know, there is no such thing as a banker, and should Arsenal struggle and not get the win at Villa Park, the guy will end up with absolutely nothing except the regret of not cashing out when he had the chance. This fear of regret is the reason this is proving successful with the bookmakers that use this facility. People see a decent number and take it, but a serious bettor should know to look a little deeper.

Say No - Work it Out

You don't have to be a whizz kid at maths, but you should be looking at whether or not the bookmaker is actually offering a good deal. Like anything in life, don't be dazzled by the big numbers or promise of something exciting, delve deeper and have a proper look. Is what they are offering good value for money, or are there any alternatives?

You have three options at the end of the day...

Accept the Cash-Out from Mr Betfair, enjoy the £2674.44. You'll be annoyed if Arsenal win, but delighted with your choice if Villa get a result.
Reject the cash out and let it ride. You backed Arsenal because you think they're going to win, just because you've got the option to cash out half your winnings shouldn't change your opinion on the game. If Arsenal win, happy days! If they draw or lose, you lose the £500 stake.
Reject the cash out from Betfair, and cash-out yourself. Go the the Betfair Exchange and LAY Arsenal at a price of 1.53 for £1,568.25 liability and GUARANTEE yourself £2958.96.

Option three is the manual version of what Betfair (and other bookmakers) offer on the cashout feature. The manual version earns you an extra £284.52 profit, which equates to an additional 13.1%. 

Betfair have taken 13.1% of your profit for doing nothing, don't let them do it! In this instance, the best value is actually option three, as the price you are opposing Arsenal is less than the price you backed them at...

THINK TWICE BEFORE CASHING OUT

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Bundesliga - Tips and Predictions...

The Bundesliga has already taken shape this season, with the title race seemingly all but over already thanks to the tremendous form of Bayern Munich. If you remember my post from earlier this year, I gave my prediction as to where each team would finish, how many points they would accrue, including W/D/L and goals for and against. My prediction was a bit of fun, as season long bets can be tricky at the best of times. However, I am quietly pleased with how it appears to be panning out. I have correctly got the top 6 in the top 6, with 4 in the right place (Dortmund are 3rd, with Leverkusen 2nd). I also went with Braunschweig to be bottom...

To analyse it a little more, I decided to look at the current points per game (PPG) each team has achieved, and compare it with my season-long predictions to see who I got close and who I am out on. There are 8 of the 18 teams that have a PPG differential of 0.21 or less:

Bayern +0.21
Augsburg +0.20
Braunschweig +0.13
Schalke +0.11
Werder Bremen +0.09
Gladbach +0.06
Hannover -0.09

I never expected to get it spot on at all, and there are ultimately  a few teams that I have got massively wrong...

Hertha Berlin (+0.76 PPG Differential)

Hertha have been the biggest overachievers from my prediction, by quite a long way too. The main reason for this is the value I put on points in the second tier, and the fact that it is always tough to know how a promoted team will cope in a higher division. They’ve performed very well and competed with the top sides – often making light work of the weaker sides in the league.

They have a real chance of European qualification now, and it would be great to see them continue their form to get there too.

Mainz (+0.65 PPG Differential)

I expected Mainz to struggle this season, but they have managed to grind out 9 wins from 20 already (I predicted 7 wins and 8 draws). They’ve only drawn three, which is low, so this partly explains their over achieving points per game total. I expected them to be scrapping for survival at the bottom of the Bundesliga table, but my prediction was wrong and they seem more likely to finish in the top half.

Recent form of 9 points from their last 4 games has skewed this slightly (after 16 games, they had a -0.19 PPG differential!). The form of their Asian players has contributed to this, especially Shinji Okazaki who has popped up with 9 goals so far this season.

Hamburg (-0.58 PPG Differential)

Hamburg, well... There is not much to say about them. They have been pretty woeful throughout the season and are by far the biggest under achievers. They’re on their second manager, and he (Bert van Marwijk) is under pressure having not been able to improve results. They’ve lost their last 6 at the time of writing this post, and don’t really look like pulling themselves out of this slump.

If they manage to avoid relegation, they will have done well from this position, at this stage of the season when confidence must be at a real rock bottom.

(To view the full league prediction image just CLICK HERE)

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Cash Out? A Feature for the Bookmaker

Several bookmakers now offer and heavily promote their 'cash-out' feature on TV and online, and big sports accounts often open up the debate when followers send in their 'cash-out dilemmas'.... Should someone cash out after winning 8 of their 9 games in an accumulator or should they take the risk and see if the final team can win too. The answer is simple, but is becoming less and less clear due - NO, you should NEVER use the cashout option.

The Situation

Using the example in the image above, you can see that this guy has done a £500 five fold. The first four bets have won, leaving him with Arsenal to win tonight at Aston Villa - at a price of 1.57. Betfair have been generous and said "you know what, we'll give you £2674.44 and settle the bet right now". Wow, the bookmaker is willing to pay out on his bet before he won!

Also, as anyone who bets on sports will know, there is no such thing as a banker, and should Arsenal struggle and not get the win at Villa Park, the guy will end up with absolutely nothing except the regret of not cashing out when he had the chance. This fear of regret is the reason this is proving successful with the bookmakers that use this facility. People see a decent number and take it, but a serious bettor should know to look a little deeper.

Say No - Work it Out

You don't have to be a whizz kid at maths, but you should be looking at whether or not the bookmaker is actually offering a good deal. Like anything in life, don't be dazzled by the big numbers or promise of something exciting, delve deeper and have a proper look. Is what they are offering good value for money, or are there any alternatives?

You have three options at the end of the day...

  1. Accept the Cash-Out from Mr Betfair, enjoy the £2674.44. You'll be annoyed if Arsenal win, but delighted with your choice if Villa get a result.
  2. Reject the cash out and let it ride. You backed Arsenal because you think they're going to win, just because you've got the option to cash out half your winnings shouldn't change your opinion on the game. If Arsenal win, happy days! If they draw or lose, you lose the £500 stake.
  3. Reject the cash out from Betfair, and cash-out yourself. Go the the Betfair Exchange and LAY Arsenal at a price of 1.53 for £1,568.25 liability and GUARANTEE yourself £2958.96.

Option three is the manual version of what Betfair (and other bookmakers) offer on the cashout feature. The manual version earns you an extra £284.52 profit, which equates to an additional 13.1%. 

Betfair have taken 13.1% of your profit for doing nothing, don't let them do it! In this instance, the best value is actually option three, as the price you are opposing Arsenal is less than the price you backed them at...

THINK TWICE BEFORE CASHING OUT

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