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Bet365 In Play Offer - Man City v Barcelona

Today we have another opportunity to guarantee a nice free bet for tonight's Champions League fixture at the Etihad between Man City and Barcelona. Bet365 are offering a 100% risk free £50 in play bet to all users that stake £50 on the Man City v Barcelona game in a pre match market too. There is only one correct way to use this promotion to your benefit...

All you need is funds in your bet365 account (get a bet365 account here) - £100 to be precise. You need to stake £50 before the match and £50 during the match - should the in-play bet lose, bet365 will refund it as CASH, not as a free bet. From experience, they are busy immediately after the game so this process can take up to 2 hours, although it is usually resolved within 20 minutes of the final whistle...

OK, so here is the juicy information - how to get a £50 bet for less than £2 liability:

How to get a £50 free bet for less than £2

  • Bet £50 on over 0.5 goals at Bet365 (odds: 1.03*)
  • Use another account such as Bet Victor and back 0-0 correct score (odds: 16.00) for £3.34.
  • If the game ends 0-0, you return £53.44 (+£0.10)
  • If there is 1 goal or more, you return £51.50 (-£1.84)

Doing the above limits your liability to £1.84 maximum, but means that your first in-play bet (up to £50 in value) is no-risk and will be refunded should it lose!!

You can then use the bet on bet365's in-play markets, of which there are over 70. You could go for a correct score, first goalscorer, anytime scorer, or a simple bet on the Home/Draw/Away (1X2) market. The £50 is as close to risk free as you will likely get, so make the most of it! 

Be sure to let me know what you have gone for on Twitter

*odds were valid at the time of publishing this article

n.b. Some people suggest using the £50 in play to bet against your pre-match bet, but this is against Bet365 terms and conditions. This means they would be within their rights to cancel your participation in the promotion - which would ultimately leave you out of pocket.

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Bundesliga - Tips and Predictions...

The Bundesliga has already taken shape this season, with the title race seemingly all but over already thanks to the tremendous form of Bayern Munich. If you remember my post from earlier this year, I gave my prediction as to where each team would finish, how many points they would accrue, including W/D/L and goals for and against. My prediction was a bit of fun, as season long bets can be tricky at the best of times. However, I am quietly pleased with how it appears to be panning out. I have correctly got the top 6 in the top 6, with 4 in the right place (Dortmund are 3rd, with Leverkusen 2nd). I also went with Braunschweig to be bottom...

To analyse it a little more, I decided to look at the current points per game (PPG) each team has achieved, and compare it with my season-long predictions to see who I got close and who I am out on. There are 8 of the 18 teams that have a PPG differential of 0.21 or less:

Bayern +0.21
Augsburg +0.20
Braunschweig +0.13
Schalke +0.11
Werder Bremen +0.09
Gladbach +0.06
Hannover -0.09

I never expected to get it spot on at all, and there are ultimately  a few teams that I have got massively wrong...

Hertha Berlin (+0.76 PPG Differential)

Hertha have been the biggest overachievers from my prediction, by quite a long way too. The main reason for this is the value I put on points in the second tier, and the fact that it is always tough to know how a promoted team will cope in a higher division. They’ve performed very well and competed with the top sides – often making light work of the weaker sides in the league.

They have a real chance of European qualification now, and it would be great to see them continue their form to get there too.

Mainz (+0.65 PPG Differential)

I expected Mainz to struggle this season, but they have managed to grind out 9 wins from 20 already (I predicted 7 wins and 8 draws). They’ve only drawn three, which is low, so this partly explains their over achieving points per game total. I expected them to be scrapping for survival at the bottom of the Bundesliga table, but my prediction was wrong and they seem more likely to finish in the top half.

Recent form of 9 points from their last 4 games has skewed this slightly (after 16 games, they had a -0.19 PPG differential!). The form of their Asian players has contributed to this, especially Shinji Okazaki who has popped up with 9 goals so far this season.

Hamburg (-0.58 PPG Differential)

Hamburg, well... There is not much to say about them. They have been pretty woeful throughout the season and are by far the biggest under achievers. They’re on their second manager, and he (Bert van Marwijk) is under pressure having not been able to improve results. They’ve lost their last 6 at the time of writing this post, and don’t really look like pulling themselves out of this slump.

If they manage to avoid relegation, they will have done well from this position, at this stage of the season when confidence must be at a real rock bottom.

(To view the full league prediction image just CLICK HERE)

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The managerial merry-go-round - When will it stop spinning?

The sudden departure of Michael Laudrup from the helm at the Liberty Stadium after only 18 months in charge is probably sending shock waves around the Premier League, since it would seem that now no-one is safe from the chairman's axe. Yes, Swansea have not been enjoying the best of form recently, but that could go for any of the bottom half of the Premier League who are separated by only a handful of points. And now for one of the league's bright coaching lights, guiding his team to League Cup honours less than a year ago and with a tasty looking Europa Cup tie with Napoli just around the corner,  to suddenly be cast on the managerial scrapheap seems knee-jerkingly premature, bordering on the ludicrously irresponsible.


Of the bottom nine clubs, six have now parted company with their managers since the start of the season, with Rene Meulensteen probably avoiding being a seventh casualty only because Fulham are too embarrassed to sack two managers in the space of two months for not making a silk purse from a pig's ear. Dimitar Berbatov couldn't desert the sinking ship for the French Riviera quick enough, and who could really blame him?


Of the three managers in that bottom nine still in a job, probably only Steve Bruce can feel secure. Big Sam has been staring down the barrel since before Christmas, while Chris Hughton was reportedly only one timely win away from the chop just a few weeks ago. Chairmen's memories seem to be getting shorter, while their demands for instant success grow beyond the scope of patience and loyalty and common decency.


But what of the teams at the top? Poor old AVB didn't survive his first slump, if heavy defeats to Manchester City and Liverpool sandwiching a 5-game run of 4 wins and a draw can be called a slump. Every other team in the top half seems to be meeting or exceeding expectations - with the one glaring exception of course.
What, oh what is the Mata at Old Trafford??!! (did you see what I did there?). If this had been anything other then David Moyes' first season in charge, he would undoubtedly be long gone by now. He can only play the "transitional period" card for so long, although to be fair he has always spoken with refreshing honesty and hasn't made excuses for his players' deficiencies on the pitch. Of course it doesn't help that every time he looks up in the stand, he sees Sir Alex looking back at him like Banquo's ghost, his nemesis for years, and now haunting his misfortune game by tortuous game - a bit like having your dad turn up at work every day, tutting and shaking his head as you struggle over a spreadsheet and break the photocopier.


And he is now under real pressure, not only to make that coveted 4th Champions League spot, but indeed to reach Europe at all. With Liverpool, Everton and Spurs all vying for 4th as well and showing now signs of their form diminishing, the chances are that one of them could just as easily claim 5th place too, leaving Moyes' boys stranded and putting their passports away for a year. Indeed, with no hopes of domestic cup honours either, it would not be unreasonable to suggest that United's best hope of reaching Europe next year is to win the Champion League itself this season (no pressure, David).


The ramifications of United failing to reach Europe would go way beyond the immediate embarrassment and the sudden loss of expected Champions League revenue. The knock on effect would be a failure to attract the best players for next season, as well as a potential exodus of current topline players anxious to play on the biggest European stage, and not patient enough to take a year's sabbatical. 


Empires rise and empires fall, and maybe, just maybe,  there are just a few signs of crumbling dust in the Old Trafford brickwork.

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A season of Two Halves?

The Premier League's half-term report shows it to be a league of two halves, with already a seemingly insurmountable divide between those teams chasing Champions League glory and those likely to immersed in a relegation dogfight, and any attempts to predict the outcome at either end are likely to be about as accurate as a Jason Puncheon spot kick.

For probably the first time in Premier league history, the breakaway pack at the top comprises arguably the "Big Eight"" in terms of success, tradition, fanbase and financial clout: namely the two rivals from Manchester and Merseyside respectively, the London glamour club triumvirate, with plucky Newcastle tugging desperately at their shirt tails like a needy child.

Perhaps the only club missing that could possibly feel it has a claim to gatecrash that elite party might be fallen giants Leeds United, but their decade of decline into lower division obscurity has dulled the memory of their history and potential for now.

The top of the Premier League is excitingly and refreshingly tight, with Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal each occupying top spot at some point over last weekend, while Liverpool and Everton are constantly leapfrogging over each other in their quest to turn a promising first half of the season into long overdue tangible success. Manchester United still lie behind Tottenham (themselves with genuine European aspirations), and The Chosen One, although looking like a deer in the headlights at times when watching his team underachieving on the pitch, will no doubt cling onto the fact that United have overturned an 11-point deficit before at this stage (albeit not with six clubs ahead of them), and clearly any team missing the quality of Rooney and van Persie can only hope for an upturn in fortunes upon their return.

Of the twenty Premier League clubs, it would appear that only Newcastle United and Southampton are destined for that stale marriage of midtable mediocrity and meaningless games, both settled in that safe pocket of 30+ points in the bag without ever looking likely to upset the big boys above them, although both would argue that they are only a sustained good run away from muscling themselves back into the title-chasing pack.

At the other end, the tightness of the bottom half can be shown by the fact that Southampton in 9th place lie 7 points clear of Hull City in 10th, a margin that is actually larger than the meagre six points separating the Tigers from the Eagles in bottom spot, and while no doubt happy to be currently in the top half, Steve Bruce will be well aware that he is only one bad month away from slipping towards the bottom three precipice.

Never has the division between top and bottom halves been so distinct, and never has the fight to stay up been so interestingly poised, littered with teams with recent Championship experience, and indeed with more established teams that wouldn't be out of place in that division either. All the usual suspects are back in the fray again, although after their relative successes of last season, the bosses of Swansea and West Brom might be scratching their heads in befuddlement at where it all went wrong so far this campaign.
With an 11-club struggle for survival to go with a 7-team battle for Champions league glory, there are going to be thrills and spills and six-pointers galore, and just about every game (with the possible exception of Southampton v Newcastle) seems likely to have some bearing on title and/or survival hopes.

With such an exciting second half to the season in prospect, it is likely to get uncomfortably warm in some of the managerial hot seats between now and May, but it's should make great viewing for us from the stands or the comfort of our armchair.

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New Design for 2014

After a long drawn out process, with dozens of delays, hurdles and problems, we can finally announce the launch of our new look website! It's early days, and with anything new like this, we could have some teething problems, but we're hoping everything works perfectly right from the get-go!

 

 

What's New?

Well, there are several new aspects at the minute, and we have another backlog of updates that we will be adding over the coming few weeks.

New Now

  1. Automated odds. This industry is growing at a huge rate, with hundreds upon hundreds of new tipsters sprouting up left right and centre. Many will be good, but you have some trying to pull wool over people's eyes in order to seem better than they are. We have added automated odds that come directly from the bookmakers (21 in total) in REAL TIME! When we publish a tip, you can be sure that the odds are accurate and available.
  2. Automated resulting. We have created formulas within our database to work with the fixtures and results to calculate when a bet wins/loses automatically. Again, this eliminates human error. What about 1/4 handicaps? don't worry, the formulas will reduce the profit accuratley if the bet is a half win/half push - and will reduce the loss if it is a half push/half loss
  3. Easy to use interface. Perhaps the best feature of the new site will be the user-friendly aspect of it. You can join us by simply entering your email and creating a password. Simple. You get your own profile where you will be able to add youw own image, add personal info, review your membership status amongst other things. 
  4. Browse tips. The new site makes it much easier to browse tips. Just go to the 'tips' page, and you can see the tip archive. We have added banners that will say if the bet is active (game not started or in play), if it has won, pushed or lost. You will even be able to filter by sport. If you like the football tips, click football, if you only want basketball tips, click basketball!

After listening to customer feedback we had to think about how we could please everyone. It was tough, and means we have a big list of things to do, but we will get them done! Here are a few things coming soon

Coming Soon

  1. Tips via Email. Many of you will be pleased to know we will soon be adding a feature that sends our tips via email. We still aren't sure what the format will be (tip only, tip and reasoning etc), but we will be firing them to your inbox as well as publishing them on the site. Many of you have been after this, so hopefully this ticks your boxes!
  2. "LIKE" our tips. You may already see the "like this tip" button on the betslip on the tips we publish, but we will be making the most out of this in a few ways. Firstly, we can see what kind of tips people like and tailor our service to you. Secondly, members will be able to see the hottest tips by the number of 'likes' they have received. If we tip Man United to win the league, I don't expect many likes, but I imagine Bayern to win the Bundesliga would be more popular...
  3. Track Your Bets. Want to know how much we have made you whilst you've been a member? Usually, this will require you to tirelessly fill out an excel file with your stake information. Instead, we will be integrating a "bet on this tip" button that helps you keep a log on your bets all within the site. This isn't quite ready yet, but should be a nifty feature when we launch it!
  4. Competitions. Not the be all and end all of our service by any means, but we want to interact with our members as much as possible. We are sorting out loads of competitions with prizes ranging from memorabilia, match tickets, free bets and cold hard cash. 
  5. Forum. Live Chat was good on the old site, but a forum would be better. We have hundreds of members on board and between us I think we should be more than capable of starting a great betting community. We can help eachother out, share team news, big wins, narrow losses and anything else. 

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, we want to hear from you! What do you think, is there something else you'd like to add to the site? Get in touch by or TWITTER and we will try our best to add any viable suggestions to our back log of things to add!

Enjoy the new site

Terry

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