Allsvenskan Correct Score Model

Allsvenskan Correct Score Model

The statistical model I have built for the Swedish top flight is currently up 11.14 units from 109 picks this season. Last weekend was poor (-4.2 units), but the ROI still stands at 9.3%. I thought I'd try and show some other things it can do by showing the correct score odds it generates (this also shows how the CS market rarely offers good value)

Gefle v Halmstad: 1-0/0-1

Model really can't decide here, pricing 1-0 either way exactly to the same (8.64).

Kalmar v Malmo: 1:2

Model slightly favours Malmo here, pricing a 2-1 win at 9.52. It likes over 2.5 goals too, suggesting that anything above 1.57 would be good value

Falkenberg v AIK: 1-1

Away side favoured slightly, with the model favouring 1-1 (10.61) only slightly more that 1-0 and 2-1 away wins

Goteborg v Mjallby: 1-0

Model doesn't like goals here, favouring 1-0 home win (9.79) and a 1-1 draw (10.05)

Atvidaberg v Brommapojkarna: 1-0

Unders looks good here, 1-0 priced at 8.20 - and under 2.50 showing value above 1.80

Norrkoping v Elfsborg: 1-1

1-1 is priced at 9.50 according to the model and is the most liekly here. 

Orebro v Helsinborg: 1-2

Model favours 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 wins for the away side here. Helsinborg 2-1 is at 9.69

Djurgarden v Hacken: 1-1

Model likes unders here (under 2.5 at 1.93 or higher), and 1-1 seesm the most liekly score (8.07)

Not expecting these to come in by any means, but it could maybe help guide your selections this week. I have published 3 Allsvenskan football tips on the site for members (and one from the Superettan)


Introducting the Swedish Allsvenskan

After a decent few weeks, I've been experimenting in a few smaller leagues using similar methods to those I've been using in the bigger European competitions. Using poisson distribution and some supremacy stats, I've managed to transfer my model to the Swedish Allsvenskan, and 9 games in to the season it has provided some decent returns. 

On the 1x2 (home/draw/away) market, It has provided a return of 3.77 units (5.2% ROI). Most shrewd punters will know that the 1x2 market is tough to crack because the bookie's margins are high, and you're often limited to short favourites or rank outsiders. 

On the Asian Handicap market, the model has returned exactly 14.00 units in profit from teh first 9 rounds - a healthy 20.6% ROI. This sounds high, and it is, and ultimately I would expect this to level out over the course of the season. It's tough to have a 20% ROI, long term anything above 6-7% is very good.

These strong results have made me think that we can turn a nice profit during the course of this Swedish season. To give you a sneak preview, I've included suggested bets for the next week or so (gameweek 10):

(LOSE) Bromm v Mjallby HOME -0.50 @ 2.10
(WIN) Norrkoping v Falkenberg AWAY 1.00 @ 1.92
(LOSE) AIK v Elfsborg AWAY 0.25 @ 2.04
(WIN) Orebro v Gefle AWAY 0.75 @ 1.85
(LOSE) Halmstad v Bromm AWAY 0.50 @ 1.88
(LOSE) Hacken v Kalmar AWAY 0.50 @ 2.07
Helsinborg v Atvidaberg HOME -0.75 @ 2.17
Djurgarden v IFK Goteborg HOME 0.00 @ 1.80

Lets see how they get on, and see if the league can bring teamterry members a decent profit over the coming months.


Bet365 In Play Offer - Man City v Barcelona

Today we have another opportunity to guarantee a nice free bet for tonight's Champions League fixture at the Etihad between Man City and Barcelona. Bet365 are offering a 100% risk free £50 in play bet to all users that stake £50 on the Man City v Barcelona game in a pre match market too. There is only one correct way to use this promotion to your benefit...

All you need is funds in your bet365 account (get a bet365 account here) - £100 to be precise. You need to stake £50 before the match and £50 during the match - should the in-play bet lose, bet365 will refund it as CASH, not as a free bet. From experience, they are busy immediately after the game so this process can take up to 2 hours, although it is usually resolved within 20 minutes of the final whistle...

OK, so here is the juicy information - how to get a £50 bet for less than £2 liability:

How to get a £50 free bet for less than £2

  • Bet £50 on over 0.5 goals at Bet365 (odds: 1.03*)
  • Use another account such as Bet Victor and back 0-0 correct score (odds: 16.00) for £3.34.
  • If the game ends 0-0, you return £53.44 (+£0.10)
  • If there is 1 goal or more, you return £51.50 (-£1.84)

Doing the above limits your liability to £1.84 maximum, but means that your first in-play bet (up to £50 in value) is no-risk and will be refunded should it lose!!

You can then use the bet on bet365's in-play markets, of which there are over 70. You could go for a correct score, first goalscorer, anytime scorer, or a simple bet on the Home/Draw/Away (1X2) market. The £50 is as close to risk free as you will likely get, so make the most of it! 

Be sure to let me know what you have gone for on Twitter

*odds were valid at the time of publishing this article

n.b. Some people suggest using the £50 in play to bet against your pre-match bet, but this is against Bet365 terms and conditions. This means they would be within their rights to cancel your participation in the promotion - which would ultimately leave you out of pocket.