Betting Tool Kit - Finding Value

Betting Tool Kit - Finding Value

Betting Tool Kit - Finding Value

First of all, before we work out how to find value, we need to establish what ‘value’ actually is. To be honest, the concept is very simple, but it is misused on a daily basis to the extent that many people now miss the meaning altogether.

Value from a betting perspective is found when the odds of a given outcome are greater than the perceived chance of success.

The best example I can give away from sport would be a promotional offer in a supermarket. If a product that sold for £10 was reduced to £5, it could be classed as good value. However, if that product is something that is actually worth less than £5, then despite the ‘saving’, it still isn’t good value.

Just because a bet wins doesn’t make it good value, just as a losing bet isn’t necessarily bad value. Value is a separate entity from profit or success, although correctly finding value should lead to an increase in both. If you bet on something with a perceived 50% chance of winning (implied odds of 2.00/evens) that has a price of 1.50, then that is an example of BAD value – win or lose. However, betting on something with the same perceived 50% chance of success at a price of 2.50 is GOOD value. Why? Well, imagine placing 10 bad value bets from the above example. All 10 bets have a 50% chance of success, but at a price of 1.50 for each, you will earn 2.5 units from 5 winners and lose 5 units from 5 losers – resulting in a 2.5 unit LOSS. Find 10 good value bets and (based on above) and 5 winners will earn you 7.5 units, with 5 losers bring overall profit to +2.5 units. This is a simple example but one that shows the importance of finding value in the sports betting world.

At we spend our time researching our leagues and competitions of focus to find the bets where the percentage chance of success is higher than the odds offered would suggest – the true definition of value in the sports betting industry. By using this approach and providing we get our numbers right (which we think we do!), we will ensure long term profitability for ourselves and our members. Our past results have show that long term profits have been made using these methods, and we aim to continue this as we move forward.

You can check our results (link to results), and our previous tip archives (link to tips page) to see the bets we have made over the past few years. We have lost over 40% of our bets over this time, winning around 52%. However, you can see that we have made £1,000s from just £20 stakes, which suggests that we have found value on a regular basis.

Want help on how to calculate value? Read our Calculating Value (link to calculating value) guide.