Guides


Betting Tool Kit - Why Always Bet?

One key aspect of choosing your betting strategy is discipline. A day when you don’t bet isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Betting for the sake of it is one way to ensure you will never make a long term profit.

Despite the fact there are two of us, there is just no way we can ensure accurate and reliable tips if we feel a pressure/obligation that we always need to provide tips, even on games in leagues we aren’t familiar with. This seems obvious, but so many people ignore this rule when providing betting advice, and when betting – It’s a slippery slope and makes it almost impossible to generate profits long term.

There are hundreds of tipster services on the internet nowadays, and while some are very good, there are a growing number of services that will offer ten or more tips EVERY DAY. I’ve seen tipsters cursing Birmingham City Ladies for not being able to win a game, or maining at a side in the Indian 2nd Division for conceding a late goal, or backing FC Zalau in the Romanian 3rd Tier. How on earth can someone have strong enough knowledge on these games to provide you with advice on what to bet? Shy of looking at Soccerway’s list of results – there’s not much you can do. Finding out the information needed to make a sensible bet/tip such as team news, injuries, weather and motivation would be near impossible. I don’t know anyone knowledgeable enough to be able to provide tips on every league in the world, yet so many claim to provide ‘tips’ on any game, in any competition. Backing the favourite, with no knowledge, reasoning or justification can’t be classed as a tip in my opinion. They call it a tip, sure some will win, but say goodbye to any long term profits. The people that do this are basically gamblers/chancers; they see these type of games as an easy way to win some money. When I’ve spoken about value before, being profitable long term is difficult, and requires researching various factors to give you an edge. Betting in such as blasé manner means that the bookies will always win long term. Their researchers and analysts generate the odds based on their research, you need to research it yourself to find discrepancies on these odds and pounce. THIS is what a tip should be, not 17 bets from 11 leagues from 4 continents on a single day.

We are selective in the betting advice we provide to members, and is why we have been successful for several years and continue to generate consistent profits.

So maybe Mario Balotelli was right all along – Why Always Me Bet?

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Betting Tool Kit - Calculating Value

Continuing from the previous post about finding value, here we go in to the various methods of calculating value. Some are simple, some are a bit more complicated, but whichever method you use, you will have more success than if you ignored the price altogether and simply backed teams you thought would win.

There are many factors that you should ideally use when determining value:

Recent Form

Looking at a team’s performances across the course of a season (or even years) is not always a great indicator in to how a team will perform in their next fixture. Sometimes, a side hits a run of form that isn’t reflected in their long term league position or ability. This should always be considered. If they have won their last three games, then confidence may be higher, strikers might take more shots and defenders be tougher to beat. Equally, a side who haven’t won in 5 games might struggle to be motivated. Recent form has to be considered (or maybe weighted with more importance)

Home/Away Form

It is known that barring the odd exception, teams perform stronger when playing at home, this is reflected in results, goals scored and chances created (for the most part). Some sides however quickly develop home form that is mightily impressive, and should be factored in to your calculations when establishing value. The same goes for teams playing away from home. Generally, their results are worse on the road, but some sides could be appallingly bad; and some might actually hold their own on the road. Get it included.

Injuries/Suspensions

This is very important, but it is often difficult to establish the impact of a missing player. Robin van Persie missing for Man United has more of an impact than Fernando Torres being unavailable for Chelsea, but both will have some impact on their respective side’s chances of scoring. You need to tweak your findings in a way that you are comfortable with. Maybe you reduce Man United’s chances by 5% if RVP is missing and Chelsea by 2% if Torres is unavailable. Either way, a key player missing (or returning) should be factored in to your calculations.

Match Importance

Managers and players will say otherwise, but some games are harder to get motivated for than others. If a side are playing to avoid relegation on the final day, this will have an effect on how they approach the game both mentally and tactically. This will need to be factored in, as ignoring it will result in basing you calculations on irrelevant information.

There are other factors too, but the deeper you delve, the more time it takes up and the more difficult it is to maintain. Shots on goal, shots on target, chance conversion, possession, weather, distance travelled, days since last fixture are all examples of other variables that you could include.

Once you have taken all of that information in to account, you need to somehow put it in to a percentage to compare against the odds available at the bookmakers to establish if there is any value. This is where the options go from very basic to incredibly complex.

One simplistic method that is used by some is to combine home and away form results over the past 6-12 matches. For example, Arsenal are playing Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium and Arsenal have won 4 of their last 6, drawing once and losing once. Chelsea have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 1 in their last 6 away games. To calculate the odds, you combine these results to see the home side has won 5 (4+1), with 3 draws (1+2) and 4 away wins (3+1). This prices a home win at 41.7% (2.40), the draw at 25% (4.00) and the away win at 33.3% (3.00). This can be an easy to calculate method that at least provides some insight.

To be honest, this alone isn’t really enough. It doesn’t factor very much in to the equation at all. Did Arsenal win their 4 games against strong sides? When they lost did they miss any key players? To get a more accurate prediction/forecast, it is important to factor in as much information as possible. This is where it becomes more complicated and statistical models could come in to play. Building a statistical model sounds complicated but it can be done and could ultimately provide invaluable information that could increase your profitability as a sports bettor.

Why not read our brief guide on building a statistical model to improve your sports betting practices? (link)

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Betting Tool Kit - What is Asian Handicap?

I enjoy using Asian handicap (AH), and have found it to be very profitable when working alongside my research and statistical models. A lot of my new followers often aren't sure of the numbers I use in my tips (-0.5, +1.25 etc), so I've written this post to explain the method/market...

Asian Handicap fundamentally allows you to bet on the strength of your predicted outcome. This provides far more flexibility when placing bets than the usual 1X2 market. Instead of placing bets on the favourite at 1.20, you can use AH to work these odds up to closer to 2.00 (evens), or even higher - if you're confident enough in your choice.

There are three types of AH bets, all provide their own advantages:

Full Goal Asian Handicap

This type of bet eliminates any form of draw. However, you can have your stake returned. It is often used to lower the risk of the bet.

Using an example, we can explain the possible outcomes when using a full goal handicap. Man United are playing at home against Stoke City and are understandably favourites for the fixture. 

The Asian Handicap line is set at -1.00, meaning you either back Man United with a -1.00 goal disadvantage, or Stoke City with a +1.00 goal advantage.

You think Man United will win easily so back them with a -1.00 disadvantage - here are the possible outcomes:

Man United win by 2+ goals = BET WINS
Man United win by 1 goal = BET IS VOID (stake returned)
Man United draw or lose = BET LOST

Notice there is no option of a draw. This is the main feature of Asian Handicap. This allows bookmakers to price the bets with lower margins, which is a great thing for the punter.

Half Goal Asian Handicap

This bet type you either win or lose. The underdog starts with an advantage that the favourite must overcome. The below example shows Newcastle United as favourites. You back them on the Asian Handicap with a 0.5 goal disadvantage then they must win the game. If you backed Aston Villa in this instance, they would have to not lose the game for your AH bet to win.

Newcastle -0.5 at odds of 1.97 (wins if Newcastle win ONLY)
Aston Villa +0.5 at odds of 1.96 (wins if Villa win OR draw)

The half goal line can be higher too. A game between Man City and Hull City may give odds of 1.90 for Man City to win with a -1.5 Asian Handicap. This would mean Man City would need to win by 2 or more goals for the bet to win.

Quarter Goal Asian Handicap

The quarter goal handicap seems complicated at first, but can be easily explained. Basically, betting on this handicap splits your stake to the two nearest half AH bets. For example, placing £10 on +0.25 Asian Handicap places £5 on +0.00 and £5 on +0.50.

If your selection wins, both parts of your stake win. If your selection draws, the £5 on +.0.00 is returned, and you win on your £5 stake on +0.50 goals.

Using a new example fixture of Chelsea v Liverpool, you decide to back Liverpool +0.25 (half stake on +0.00 and half on +0.50). Here are the possible outcomes:

Liverpool WIN: +0.00 WIN and +0.50 WIN (FULL WIN)
DRAW: +0.00 is VOID and +0.50 WIN (HALF WIN)
Chelsea WIN: +0.00 LOSE and +0.0 LOSE (FULL LOSE)

Be sure to understand the different ways this can be advertised on betting sites: +0.25, +1/4 or +0.00/+0.50 are all used frequently.

Comparisons

Below is a table of comparisons, showing the equivalent bets to Asian Handicap, available at most bookmakers.

Asian Handicap = Bookies Equivalent
-1.5 = -1 Goal Handicap
-0.5 = To Win
+0.0 = Draw No Bet
+0.5 = Double Chance
+1.5 = +1 Goal Handicap

You can find a detailed win/lose/void table on the Asian Handicap Wikipedia page :

I hope this explains the Asian Handicap method, if not, let me know and I'll do my best to explain further until you understand fully!

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Betting Tool Kit - Finding Value

First of all, before we work out how to find value, we need to establish what ‘value’ actually is. To be honest, the concept is very simple, but it is misused on a daily basis to the extent that many people now miss the meaning altogether.

Value from a betting perspective is found when the odds of a given outcome are greater than the perceived chance of success.

The best example I can give away from sport would be a promotional offer in a supermarket. If a product that sold for £10 was reduced to £5, it could be classed as good value. However, if that product is something that is actually worth less than £5, then despite the ‘saving’, it still isn’t good value.

Just because a bet wins doesn’t make it good value, just as a losing bet isn’t necessarily bad value. Value is a separate entity from profit or success, although correctly finding value should lead to an increase in both. If you bet on something with a perceived 50% chance of winning (implied odds of 2.00/evens) that has a price of 1.50, then that is an example of BAD value – win or lose. However, betting on something with the same perceived 50% chance of success at a price of 2.50 is GOOD value. Why? Well, imagine placing 10 bad value bets from the above example. All 10 bets have a 50% chance of success, but at a price of 1.50 for each, you will earn 2.5 units from 5 winners and lose 5 units from 5 losers – resulting in a 2.5 unit LOSS. Find 10 good value bets and (based on above) and 5 winners will earn you 7.5 units, with 5 losers bring overall profit to +2.5 units. This is a simple example but one that shows the importance of finding value in the sports betting world.

At terrytipster.com we spend our time researching our leagues and competitions of focus to find the bets where the percentage chance of success is higher than the odds offered would suggest – the true definition of value in the sports betting industry. By using this approach and providing we get our numbers right (which we think we do!), we will ensure long term profitability for ourselves and our members. Our past results have show that long term profits have been made using these methods, and we aim to continue this as we move forward.

You can check our results (link to results), and our previous tip archives (link to tips page) to see the bets we have made over the past few years. We have lost over 40% of our bets over this time, winning around 52%. However, you can see that we have made £1,000s from just £20 stakes, which suggests that we have found value on a regular basis.

Want help on how to calculate value? Read our Calculating Value (link to calculating value) guide.

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Betting Tool Kit - Bankroll Management

You probably hear this term used regularly on social media and from tipsters such as ourselves, but why? This term is used so frequently because it is so vitally important to those who take betting seriously and look to make long term profits. Bankroll management, along with the ability to find value is one of the most crucial aspects of being a sports bettor.

Finding value in some ways is the easier of the two factors. Many people have the ability to find value (LINK TO FINDING VALUE BLOG) using their knowledge, opinions or statistical models, but that is only half the job. As all punters know, you can’t win every bet, no matter how confident you are – the beauty of sports betting is that there is no such thing as a dead cert. If you don’t manage your bankroll effectively, you could see it disappear without proper management.

Discipline is Key

Proper bankroll management should first of all start with making sure you keep an accurate record of your sports bets. Recording your bets, stakes, wins, losses and cumulative profit is a great way to stay on top of your betting patterns. It could help you notice trends – teams you can read well and have success with; and others that are costing you money. Once you see your betting patterns, trends and the stakes you have been using regularly, the chances of you straying from these ‘norms’ decreases. After losing 3 or 4 in a row can be tough to take, but being able to look at your records can help prevent you from ‘lumping’ on your next bet to try and recover your losses.

Bankroll management is used a lot in the sports betting industry, but not as much as discipline. Betting discipline is arguably the greatest principle of sports betting. Everyone struggles with it from time to time, but remaining disciplined during winning or losing streaks is aided hugely by good bankroll management.

Flat Stake Betting (Level-Staking)

There are many ways you can decide to bet, two of which requires more discipline, but are the ones that we prefer. The first, and the method we use is flat stake betting. This entails betting the same amount on every bet you place, regardless of odds or confidence. Presuming you are betting on singles around evens (for the majority or your bets, as we do on this site), this method works quite well. First of all you need to establish how much you want to invest in your betting balance. Once you have decided your betting balance, you then have to decide on your stake. We suggest that this stake is no greater than 5% of your starting bankroll. This way, you can absorb losing runs more easily without worrying about needing to deposit/re-invest. As an example, say you start with a betting balance of £400.00. Your stake will be set at £20.00 (5% of initial bank). If you are able to stay disciplined, this would mean you would need to lose 20 consecutive bets to lose your entire investment.

As well as it providing excellent protection for your betting balance, using level staking is easy to record and quantify. Let’s say your bets are all at odds of 1.95 (19/20). Over 100 bets you need to win just 55 of your picks to earn a solid 7.3% Return on Investment. Syndicates and trading houses are happy with anything above 3-5%, so this just goes to show the attainability of a profitable betting strategy. Winning 55% of your bets at those odds isn’t easy, but if you find value, then over time you should make a decent return. Using this example, betting level stakes of £20 on odds of 1.95 and winning 55 of 100 bets; your betting balance will have grown from £400.00 to £545.00. That is a solid return considering you have lost 45 bets! Add a few hot streaks and this could be much greater.

It is unlikely your odds will ALWAYS be prices at 1.95 though, but using this simplistic example helps to explain the simplicity of this method of bankroll management.

Main Benefits:

·         Easy to keep records

·         Easy to maintain and work out stakes (always the same!)

·         True reward for odds taken

Percentage Staking Plan

Any sports bettor will tell you that there go through winning and losing streaks, and anyone who tells you different is a liar! A percentage staking plan can often be used as a great way to ensure those losing streaks impact your betting balance as little as possible. Similarly to the aforementioned level staking plan, a percentage staking plan requires you to decide on a starting balance (i.e. £400), and then decide on a percentage of the bankroll to use. 5% is commonly used, so again this will be used in the example. You start with £400, so your first bet of 5% is £20. If this wins at a price of evens, your balance will be £420. Your next bet will stake 5% of your new balance of £420 (£21). This is how this plan differs from the level-stakes version.

If you go on a losing streak, your stake becomes progressively smaller. Similarly, a winning streak would result in your betting stake continually increasing. There are two ways to look at this strategy. First of all, you can say that it is great that when losing, your stakes become lower, which would make your balance last longer. However, If you were to lose 6 bets in a row, it would take longer to recover to your starting point because the stakes would be less than the 5% of your starting bank.

Main Benefits:

·         Flexible - as your bankroll grows/shrinks, so do you bets.

·         Winning streaks can grow your bank almost exponentially.

·         Losing streaks are reduced as stakes decrease after each losing bet

Hopefully this article will help you decide upon which method you might wish to use if you are thinking of taking sports betting more seriously. If you already take it seriously, maybe you will consider one of these methods to help improve your discipline and strategy. Fundamentally, the aim of these strategies is to instil a disciplined approach to betting; reducing the risks and increasing the chance of becoming part of the 2-3% of sports bettors that profit on a regular basis. Obviously, this will only be of any use if you have the skill to predict more winners than losers.

You can look at my article on a staking plan using varied stakes HERE (LINK TO VARIED STAKES BLOG)

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